A long-simmering “what if” has become a reality in Alberta, with federalists and separatists now on a five-month clock to convince Albertans to either smother the emerging flames of a sovereignty movement or “start a legal process” for a binding referendum to “separate from Canada”.

Those are the options laid out in a 37-word question that the UCP government led by Premier Danielle Smith will put to Albertans in an Oct. 19 referendum.

New polling data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute gauging Albertans’ opinions leads to three key conclusions. First, in answering the official October question, most Albertans would choose not to proceed with starting the process of a binding separation vote (61% versus 36%). Second, half (51%) find the question confusing. And third, that if they were to answer a simpler hypothetical question – whether to leave or stay – support for the federalist side increases (67% stay, 31% leave).

The data also indicate significant dissatisfaction with the way the Alberta premier has handled the issue, and cynicism over her own motivations. But this sentiment is most widely and intensely felt among those who already do not support her party personally, nor the separatist movement.

The official October 19 referendum question asks: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Across Albertans overall, 60% would vote No (Alberta stays) and 35% would vote Yes (begin the process). Edmonton is the most federalist city (73% No), while rural Alberta is evenly split at 48-48. NDP voters are near-unanimous in choosing to stay (90% No), while UCP voters lean toward Yes (64-30).

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/