A new Mainstreet Research poll of BC Conservative members shows a very clear two horse race emerging with four weeks until membership registration cut-off on April 18. The snapshot was commissioned by the Peter Milobar campaign.

Among the findings, the first choice leader is Caroline Elliott with just over 2 in 10 votes (21.2%) versus Peter Milobar at (20.8%). The results among a sample of both current members (2,213) and Conservative voters who indicated they intend to join the BC Conservative Party by the membership deadline of April 18 (365) for a total sample of 2,578. The poll was conducted between March 19 and 22 via email and SMS to online. While a random sample of a non-random population like a membership does not carry a traditional margin of error, for comparison, a random probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/-1.93 19 times out of 20.

Milobar leads among second choices (9.8%) with Ian Black a close second (9.1%) and Elliott (7.8%) and Findlay (6.0%) rounding out the top four. A ranked ballot simulation shows Milobar as the eventual winner based on these results. Details of ballot by ballot results are included in these results.

Among those sampled, almost 3 in 10 said they did not have a second choice (26.6%) and almost 4 in 10 saying they have no third choice (38.9%) pointing to a polarized membership contest.

When asked who would be most likely to unite the BC Conservative Party and defeat the NDP in the next election, Peter Milobar emerged the clear frontrunner with 30.6% and Caroline Elliott in second at 26%. When asked to rank factors that would determine their votes out of 10 factors, the top factors cited by BC Conservative Party respondents in choosing their next leader included “Is best candidate to win the next election” placing first at a mean factor of 3.99 followed by “Has policies that align with me” at 4.14 and “Is a fiscal Conservative” at 4.23.

When asked about their top issues, BC Conservative Party members cited Cost of living and Affordability (34.2%) as number 1 and Land and Property Rights (DRIPA) as number 2 (25.9%). While issues like cost of living and jobs and the economy largely align with the priorities of most BC residents in our last BC survey, DRIPA appears to me of much greater concern to BC Conservative members (25.9%) than the general population of British Columbia (11.5%).

“With four weeks to go and candidates in full recruitment mode, this race does appear to be a close contest” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Without a clear frontrunner at this stage, the race will be determined by second and third choice votes, how undecided voters choose and new recruits” he added. “While this race is inherently difficult to predict, one thing is certain, this outcome will not be decided early in the ranked ballot voting” he concluded.