THE Liberal Party has surpassed the 30-point threshold for the first time since September 2022 and now sits at 32 per cent, according to EKOS Politics. Indeed, the party is now tied with its vote share in the 2021 election.
Meanwhile, at 39 per cent, the Conservative lead has narrowed to just seven points, a significant shift from the 25-point advantage the party enjoyed in the wake of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation a month ago. While the Conservatives would no doubt win the most seats if an election were held tomorrow, it is unlikely they would form a majority government given the renewed Liberal support in Ontario.
According to EKOS Politics, the Liberal resurgence seems to be driven by three factors. First, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation produced a modest but noticeable boost to the party’s standing. Second, the extensive media coverage of the Liberal leadership race accelerated this rise. Finally, the cavalcade of radical announcements from the freshly inaugurated Donald Trump has spurred a renewed sense of national identity, prompting Canadians to rally around their incumbent leaders in a show of solidarity.
Both major Liberal leadership hopefuls – Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland – have taken definitive stances against any potential tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s reaction has been somewhat more muted, as he has the unenviable task of reconciling the diverging positions of other conservatives, particularly Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Instead, Poilievre’s focus has been on the carbon tax and Trudeau, which may no longer be the salient issues. His framing of the election may need to pivot and the results so far are not working in the Conservative Party’s favour.
At 14 per cent, NDP support is down slightly from the period following Freeland’s resignation. Whereas the party was in a statistical tie with the second-place Liberals a month ago, the party now finds itself trailing the Liberals by nearly 18 points. It appears that NDP Leader Jagmeet’s Singh’s signalling that the party would bring down the government at the next opportunity has not produced dividends; indeed, it may have had the opposite effect.
“Turning to the regional and demographic breakdowns, we switch to our nine-day roll-up that stretches back to January 13, when the sudden rise in Liberal support began. The longer-term roll-up provides a larger sample size, which allows us to delve into the demographic and regional patterns with greater reliability,” said EKOS Politics.
The Conservative Party maintains a sizeable lead in every province west of Ontario. Importantly, in Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are now newly in a statistical tie. More recently, the Liberals are doing much better in Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois surge has receded, with the Liberals overtaking the Conservatives for second place. The Liberals have also made an impressive recovery in Atlantic Canada.
The field dates for the five-day roll-up are January 17-21, 2025. In total, a random sample of 1,018 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The field dates for the nine-day roll-up are January 13-21, 2025. In total, a random sample of 2,047 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, and education).
EKOS follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
Click here for a copy of the data tables from the five-day roll-up (January 17-21, 2025).
Click here for a copy of the data tables from the nine-day roll-up (January 13-21, 2025).
Click here for a copy of the questionnaire that was used for this survey.