RIDING-LEVEL polling by Insights West on behalf of citizen group Dogwood Initiative shows the federal Conservative party at risk of losing three key Vancouver-area MPs in the upcoming election.
A newly created riding in the Interior, South Okanagan—West Kootenay, currently appears out of reach for the Conservatives despite a strong showing for the party in 2011.
“The level of support for Conservative candidates in South—Okanagan and Vancouver South is particularly low at this point,” said Mario Canseco, Vice President of Public Affairs, Insights West. “In North Vancouver and West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea-to-Sky Country, the incumbent party’s candidates are headed for tighter races than the ones they fought in 2011.”
Insights West interviewed 1,209 voting-age adults by telephone across four different federal ridings. Those who said they were likely to vote were asked, “If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of these candidates would you support?”
“The NDP is connecting extremely well in South Okanagan—West Kootenay,” said Canseco. “The federal Liberal party has a good chance of retaking the Vancouver South riding it held from 1993 to 2011.”
The study was funded by Dogwood Initiative, B.C.’s largest non-partisan citizen group.
“We have more than 100 volunteer teams getting ready to crank up voter turnout this fall,” said Nagata. “We’re not going to tell anyone who to vote for, but we want people to know where candidates stand on these issues, and who’s got a realistic shot at winning.”
Insights West will continue to conduct riding-level telephone polling as the election approaches.
The results included in this release are based on a telephone study conducted from July 3 to 7 among:
* 305 adult residents of the North Vancouver riding
* 302 adult residents of the South Okanagan—West Kootenay riding
* 301 adult residents of the Vancouver South riding
* 301 adult residents of the West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea-to-Sky Country riding
The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/-5.6 percentage points for each riding, 19 times out of 20.
