EKOS Poll: Conservative lead narrows to 11 points

THE Liberal Party has seen a remarkable turnaround in its fortunes in recent weeks. Following Chrystia Freeland’s resignation a month ago, the Conservative lead had reached an all-time high of 25 points.

In EKOS Politics’ latest polling, however, that advantage has narrowed to just 11 points, with the Conservatives leading 39 points to 28.

At 17 points, the NDP is in third place, and their declared intention to bring down the government does not appear to have produced any benefits.

EKOS Politics says this reversal is due primarily to a dramatic shift in Ontario. The Liberals have erased the Conservative Party’s 22-point lead and the Liberals now hold a small, statistically insignificant lead in the province.

Quebec is now a three-way race with a more modest Bloc Québécois lead. Atlantic Canada is a dead heat between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Conservatives have an insurmountable lead in Alberta and enjoy a 16-point advantage in British Columbia.

The Conservatives maintain a staggering lead with men, though the Liberals have a slight advantage with women. The Conservatives lead with every age cohort except seniors, where the Liberal Party has a modest lead. The Conservatives have a huge lead with working-class Canadians, though they find themselves in a statistical tie with the Liberals among university graduates.

EKOS Politics says: “While the Conservative Party would still win handily with these numbers, it is unclear whether they would secure a majority victory given the slight Liberal advantage in Ontario and the Conservative Party’s over-concentration of support in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Whether the Liberal Party’s newfound fortunes are related to Mark Carney’s entry into the leadership race, discussions about Chrystia Freeland’s entry, a heightened sense of national unity in the lead-up to Donald Trump’s inauguration, or some other factor is unclear. However, given the stability of these findings over the past four days, these figures are at least a temporary new normal in the race.”

 

The field dates for this survey are January 13-16, 2025. In total, a random sample of 1,036 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.