Party still leads by 14 points, would likely win majority if election were held tomorrow

THE Conservative Party has enjoyed a profound advantage in federal vote intention since Pierre Poilievre assumed leadership. Over the past year, this advantage has been in the high teens and reached 24 points in June. The stability and magnitude of this lead pointed to a pretty certain path to a commanding majority government.

While the Conservative lead continues to be sizable, the past few weeks have seen the largest decline since Poilievre’s ascendance as leader, according to an EKOS poll conducted August 1-19. While the Conservative lead is still comfortable, the massive advantage of 24 points in June is now a more modest 14 points. The key movement has been a decline in Conservative support rather than a clear rise in another party, says EKOS.

On further inspection, it appears that this decline is linked to some of the same groups that have been involved in the sharp reversal of Democrat fortunes in the United States. While it is speculative to assume this is a key factor, this movement is concomitant with the handoff of Democratic leadership from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. In EKOS’s data, the Canadian effect is stronger among women and is dramatically pronounced among under-35 women where the Conservatives have seen a 24-point decline in support.

Notably, this large movement has not benefited the Liberals who continue to struggle with younger Canada. Rather, EKOS says it has seen a major shift to the NDP for young women. Less dramatic but significant declines for the Conservatives are evident among the university educated, self-defined middle-class voters, and Indigenous voters. The Conservative vote remains very strong among men – particularly younger men – and is bedrock in Alberta. There has been some significant weakening of the Conservative position in Quebec as well.

So what does this mean? That is unclear but, after a protracted period of holding a stranglehold on a majority outcome, the Conservative Party’s prospects appear less certain. The Conservatives are still in a majority position, but it is a far less commanding advantage than we saw only a month ago. Is this an ephemeral bounce or is this a signal of deeper concerns about the prospects of a Conservative majority? The answer to this question is very unclear but these effects are surprising and bear careful watching as we draw to the end of the summer season, says EKOS.

This survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

The field dates for this survey are August 1-19, 2024. In total, a random sample of 1,801 Canadians aged 18 and over (including a sub-sample of 1,599 decided voters) responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided.