Among current Liberal supporters, Freeland and Carney are in a tight race (26% vs. 20%), reflecting a possible close and competitive race emerging
ABACUS Data said on Thursday that despite Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s widely known resignation, it hasn’t seen any meaningful bounce for the party. In fact, the Conservatives have extended their lead to a staggering 27 points—47% support compared to the Liberals’ 20%. That’s the largest gap we’ve ever recorded in its 14.5 years of tracking public opinion.
Trudeau’s personal negatives are on the rise, and only 12% of Canadians feel the Liberals deserve another mandate. Even when Trudeau’s name is removed from that question, support for re-electing the Liberals barely budged. Meanwhile, overall government approval remains stuck in a rut.
A bit of a silver lining: the pool of voters willing to consider the Liberals has grown four points since December, and the share of Canadians who think the country is on the right track also ticked up by four points. Those are modest gains, but in the current context, the party will take any good news it can get.
Awareness of Trudeau’s resignation is nearly universal—95% of Canadians knew he announced he’s stepping down by 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Younger Canadians heard via social media or word of mouth, while older generations relied heavily on television.
The emotional response? Relief, optimism, and delight are the most common reactions, especially among former Liberal voters who’ve since switched their support. Liberal partisans are understandably more disappointed. Around 40% of Canadians think the resignation could spark change in the party, but the majority remain skeptical anything will truly shift.
Despite broad cynicism, 23% of Canadians say they are now at least somewhat more likely to vote Liberal without Trudeau leading the charge, including 14% of current Conservative supporters and 28% of NDP backers. If, hypothetically, the Liberals converted all those voters, they’d rise from 20% to 32%, shrinking the Conservative lead to 40%, with the NDP settling around 13%. That wouldn’t be enough for a Liberal win, but it might keep them in contention as the official opposition. However, that scenario demands a herculean effort—far from a sure bet, says Abacus Data Chairman and CEO David Coletto.
Abacus Data also asked Canadians who they recognize and how they feel about possible successors. Chrystia Freeland tops the list: 51% of respondents correctly identified her from a photo, followed by Mark Carney at 24%, Mélanie Joly at 22%, Anita Anand at 15%, Christy Clark at 13%, and Dominic Leblanc at 12%. Carney and Clark are seen as the most distinct from Trudeau, while Joly, Anand, Leblanc, and Freeland are perceived as more similar to him.
When pressed on preferred leadership options, nearly half of Canadians say they don’t know who they’d pick. Freeland leads with 17%, Carney follows at 13%, and everyone else is in single digits. Among current Liberal supporters, Freeland and Carney are in a tight race (26% vs. 20%), reflecting a possible close and competitive race emerging.
The final question: how will history judge Justin Trudeau?
Half of Canadians say he’ll be remembered as a “poor” or “terrible” prime minister, but the other half consider him “okay” or better. That split underscores that, for many, this resignation was less about legacy and more about wanting fresh leadership at the top.
