ABACUS Data says it has just completed its latest national federal tracking survey, conducted from February 5 to 10 among 1,915 Canadian adults, and the numbers point to a political environment that continues to shift in the Liberals’ favour.
For the first time in years, Canadians are no longer clearly pessimistic about the direction of the country. Today, 42% say Canada is headed in the right direction and 42% say it’s on the wrong track. That represents a meaningful improvement compared with much of late 2024 and 2025, when pessimism consistently dominated.
What makes this shift more interesting is that global anxiety remains high. Seven in ten say the world is headed in the wrong direction and 76% say the same about the United States. Canadians appear to be separating global instability from their assessment of Canada’s trajectory.
Affordability remains the dominant issue, with 64% selecting the rising cost of living as a top priority. The economy follows at 40%. But concern about Donald Trump and his administration has risen sharply, with 39% ranking it among their top three priorities, nearly tied with the economy.
That shift matters politically. Among those focused on affordability, the Conservatives hold a narrow edge. But among those who say Trump should be a top priority, the Liberals lead by 44 points on which party would do best.
Vote intention reflects this dynamic. The Liberals are at 44%, the Conservatives at 37%, giving the Liberals their largest lead in our tracking since Mark Carney became Liberal leader. Government approval remains elevated at 52%, and Carney continues to hold a strong positive personal rating.
The fundamentals are aligned in a way that they have not been since the leadership transition, suggesting this may be one of the most favourable environments the Liberals have seen in months.
