Premier David Eby is by far the most popular provincial party leader

ABACUS Data’s survey of 1,000 eligible voters in British Columbia from May 6 to 9,  shows that the BC NDP would likely win another majority government although the 18-point lead it measured in November 2023 has closed to six points over the BC Conservatives.

The BC NDP has the support of 40% of committed voters, a four-point drop from November. The BC Conservatives are second with 34%, up eight while the official opposition BC United is at 13%, down four. The BC Greens are at 10%, up one from Abacus Data’s earlier survey.

Regionally, the BC NDP is ahead by 6-points in Metro Vancouver, by 15-points on Vancouver Island, and statistically tied with the BC Conservatives in the Interior and North.

The BC NDP is ahead by 15 points among those aged 45 and over, is tied with the BC Conservatives among those aged 30 to 44, and trail the BC Conservatives by 7 among those under 30.

The BC NDP leads by 11 among women (42% to 31% for the BC Conservatives) and a marginal 2 points among men (39% to 37% for the BC Conservatives).

In terms of leader impressions, Premier David Eby is by far the most popular provincial party leader: 40% have a positive impression (up 1 from November) while 27% have a negative view (up 2).

In comparison, BC United Leader Kevin Falcon is net -15 with 19% positive and 34% negative. BC Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau is +2 with 24% positive and 22% negative while BC Conservative Leader John Rustad is -3 with 25% positive (unchanged from November) and 29% negative (up 2 from November). Despite a significant increase in support, BC Conservative Leader John Rustad’s personal image has not changed much since the end of last year.

According to Abacus Data founder, Chair and CEO, David Coletto: “The NDP remains in a strong position, despite widespread concern about the cost of living and the direction of the province. Premier Eby has a net favourable impression – rare among incumbents in Canada right now and the NDP is seen as the best party to handle healthcare, housing, and poverty and it is tied with the Conservatives on the most salient issue – the cost of living. The NDP also has more support among older voters who are also more likely to vote.”