Liberals ahead by 2 as hung parliament is most likely outcome: Abacus Data

  1. The Liberals are 2 points ahead of the Conservatives nationally (34% to 32%) with the NDP at 16%, the Bloc Quebecois at 8%, and the Greens at 8%.
  2. Regionally, the Liberals lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada and the Conservatives in the Prairies. BC seems to be a three-way race between the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP. The BQ and Liberals are tied in Quebec.
  3. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ends the campaign with the best image overall. In the final week of the campaign, our data suggests Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s has improved while Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s remains the more negative.
  4. The cost of living, health care, and climate change are the top issues of the campaign. No party has a clear advantage on affordability, but between the Liberals and the Conservatives, the Liberals lead big on climate change.
  5. We also tested reaction to different governing scenarios after the election. Overall, no one scenario found a majority saying it would be good for Canada, but the outcomes with the highest positive reaction were the NDP and Liberals governing together (39%), the NDP, Liberals, and Greens governing together (35%), the Conservatives governing alone (35%), and the Liberals governing along (34%).

The ABACUS DATA survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 17 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.