Either result would produce a Liberal majority
MARK Carney’s landslide victory as Liberal leader on Sunday has propelled the party to 49.5 per cent – a record high in EKOS Politics’ 26 years of IVR tracking.
Most of these gains have come at the expense of the NDP and the Green Party, whose support has collapsed to 8 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, amid the flurry of tariff and annexation threats from south of the border.
The Conservatives stand at 31.8 per cent nationally, which puts the Liberals in position for a commanding majority if these numbers hold.
The Liberals enjoy decisive leads in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec. Curiously, the Liberals have a statistically insignificant edge in Alberta; however, this finding is almost certainly an artefact of chance given the small sample size in the province (this finding did not appear in the parallel Probit survey).
The Liberals have a huge lead with women and those over 50, while they find themselves in a statistical tie the Conservatives among men and younger voters. The party also leads handily with university graduates and middle-class voters, though the working-class vote remains a closely contested two-way race.
Lastly, EKOS Politics notes that it’s seeing the results of its IVR polling replicated in a parallel online survey conducted using its probability-based panel, Probit. All in all, it is seeing an unprecedented shift in the voter landscape amid unprecedented global challenges.
This research draws on results from two surveys. The first survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline-only random digit dialling (RDD), EKOS Politics created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, it is able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cellphone-only households and landline-only households.
The field dates for the IVR survey are March 10-13, 2025. In total, a random sample of 1,025 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The remaining survey was conducted using using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into the panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to the panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates.
The field dates for the Probit survey are March 7-11, 2025. In total, a random sample of 1,524 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
