THE BC NDP’s lead has been all but erased due to rising Conservative support over the past four months: NDP 42%, Conservative Party of BC 39%, BC United 10%, and BC Greens 8%, according to a Leger study conducted between August 2 and 5 on the performance of the BC government.
Support for the Conservative Party of BC has increased significantly, as have approval ratings for leader John Rustad. Notably, the Conservative Party of BC now massively outperforms BC United across all regions of BC.
Those aged 18-34 and 55+ are significantly more likely to believe the province is going in the right direction.
According to Leger, while the BC NDP under Premier David Eby still appears to be maintaining a stable support base, the Conservative Party of BC has been rapidly capturing support from undecided voters and ex-BC United supporters.
BC United support has declined significantly in poll standings between March and August 2024 and now sits at 10% which is only around a third of the level recorded less than two years ago in January 2023 (28%). The BC Greens sit right behind BC United, holding consistent at 8% support.
Leger says the dramatic rise in support levels for the Conservative Party of BC can be attributed to five main factors. Firstly, the increases in awareness, approval ratings and voter support of Rustad have been significant across all age groups and genders.
Next, there is a perception that BC is on the wrong track, and BC Conservative voters are far more likely than most to agree with this.
Thirdly, the rise in the popularity of the federal Conservative Party is strongly correlated to the same trend in BC.
Fourth, the poor performance of the BC NDP on critical files have left them vulnerable.
Lastly, the implosion of Kevin Falcon’s BC United Party has been spectacular—leaving right-wing voters with only one obvious place to turn.
Housing affordability remains the top issue in B.C. (and has remained so since May 2016) followed by health care and inflation / rising interest rates, highlighting the continued economic and social challenges facing the province.
That said, the proportion who ranked inflation / rising interest rates as most important (11%) and important (23%) has decreased in August 2024 relative to March 2024 (15% and 31%, respectively).
Leger says approval ratings of the current BC NDP government on various government files outlines their vulnerability and points to reasons for the rise in the popularity of the Conservative Party of BC.
While the BC NDP scores highest on reconciliation with indigenous peoples, education, relations with the feds, transportation and the environment, the disapproval ratings are high for their handling of homelessness, the opioid crisis, poverty, housing prices taxes, crime and healthcare in BC.
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This web survey was conducted from August 2 to 5 with 1,001 British Columbians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison, a probability sample of 1,002 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3.1 %, 19 times out of 20.
