Conservatives lead by 21 despite negative impressions of Poilievre rising: Abacus Data poll

WHILE 39% of Canadians hold a positive impression of Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, 40% now view him negatively, a 5-point increase from last month, according to a poll by Abacus Data.

This is the first time since last October that Poilievre’s net favorability score has dipped into negative territory, now standing at -1.

The rise in negative impressions is broad-based, cutting across regional and demographic lines. Poilievre’s negatives increased by 7 points in BC, and 6 points in Quebec, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. Both men (+5) and women (+4) registered more negative views. Politically, his negatives surged among past Liberal voters (+6), NDP voters (+7), and Bloc Québécois voters (+16).

Despite these growing negatives, Poilievre remains the most positively viewed party leader, with 39% of Canadians holding a favorable opinion of him, compared to 30% for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and 23% for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Negative perceptions of Singh also continue to climb. His net favorability score has fallen to -11, with 41% of Canadians now holding a negative view of him, marking the lowest score Abacus Data has measured for Singh since it began tracking.

There has been a notable shift in opinions about the need for change and the availability of acceptable alternatives. While 51% of Canadians believe it’s time for a change in government and think a good alternative exists, this is down 5 points from last month, the lowest level since March.

Meanwhile, 34% of Canadians want change but don’t see a viable alternative, marking a 5-point increase from last month. Support for Trudeau and the Liberals remains weak, with only 15% of Canadians believing they deserve to be re-elected, unchanged from last month.

Despite the changing impressions of party leaders, voting intentions have remained stable. If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would support the Conservatives, compared to 22% for the Liberals, 19% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois leads with 36%, while the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 24%. Fifteen percent of Canadians remain undecided.

The Conservatives continue to dominate across most regions, leading by 18 points in BC, 41 points in Alberta, 34 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 22 points in Ontario, and 12 points in Atlantic Canada. Only in Quebec does the Bloc hold a lead. Within Ontario, the Conservatives are ahead by 21 points in Toronto, 29 in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), and 18 in Southwestern Ontario.

The Conservatives maintain broad support across age groups, with vote share ranging from 39% to 46%. The Liberals, however, have higher support at the extremes of the age spectrum, drawing 26% support from those aged 18-30 and 24% from those aged 60 and over. The Bloc Québécois, notably, draws over half of its support from Canadians over 60, influencing its focus on senior-related policies.

A slight gender gap persists, with 48% of men supporting the Conservatives, compared to 38% of women. Liberal support is higher among women (25%) than men (20%).

Half of Canadians (50%) believe the Conservatives are likely to win the next federal election, up 3 points from last month. In comparison, 17% think the Liberals will win, and 9% believe the NDP has a chance. One in four Canadians remain unsure about the outcome.

According to Abacus Data, perceptions of all three main party leaders are becoming more negative. While Poilievre remains more popular than Singh or Trudeau, his rising negatives suggest he is not immune to reputational damage. That said, despite his increasing negatives, Conservative support remains steady, indicating that those turned off by him aren’t Conservative voters.

This political environment is marked by a high desire for change, but a significant portion of Canadians (34%) aren’t comfortable with any of the current alternatives. Eighty-five percent want a new government, but only 15% believe Trudeau deserves re-election. This dynamic suggests that the Liberals’ only path to competitiveness would be improving Trudeau’s image or changing leadership.

 

The survey was conducted with 1,900 Canadian adults from October 3 to 10. The margin of error is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20, and the data were weighted to reflect Canada’s population by age, gender, education, and region.

 

 

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