Most new residents expected to come from outside of Canada
METRO Vancouver’s latest regional projections anticipate significant growth over the next 25 years, highlighting the importance of collaboration and planning to ensure Metro Vancouver communities remain livable and vibrant.
“Accurate projections help guide us as we work to build a resilient, sustainable region,” said Mike Hurley, Chair of Metro Vancouver’s Board of Directors, on Wednesday. “This updated data allows us to work effectively with member jurisdictions, utilities, and other partners to plan for housing, jobs, and critical infrastructure while maintaining the quality of life that makes this region so unique.”
Key findings in the latest projections include:
- A net annual average of 50,000 new residents will move to the region each year — an increase from the historical average of 35,000
- The regional population is projected to reach four million by the year 2045, nine years earlier than previously projected
- The number of dwelling units in the region is projected to reach 1.72 million by 2050
- The region is expected to add about 21,000 net new units annually from 2021 to 2051, with an average annual increase rate of 1.55 per cent
- By 2050, the region is projected to reach 2.1 million jobs — averaging 22,500 net new jobs per year
The updated projections reflect recent census data, evolving federal immigration policy, and trends in non-permanent residents. Most new residents to the region are expected to come from outside of Canada, while natural population change is on track to become negative after 2035, as deaths outpace births.
About two-thirds of the net new dwelling units added to the region are expected to be apartments, with Vancouver and Surrey anticipated to take 45 per cent of the future housing growth. In the job market, the professional/technical and health/welfare sectors are projected to grow the most over the next three decades.
“This data will help the region with more cost-effective planning for infrastructure like utilities and transit, and ensure that Metro Vancouver municipalities are meeting the needs of our growing region,” said Eric Woodward, Chair of Metro Vancouver’s Regional Planning Committee. “Accurate data like this helps us work together to better understand the growth pressures our region will face in the future, and help ensure collective planning efforts are consistent with the goals in the regional growth strategy, Metro 2050.”
Metro Vancouver, through its regional planning function, is responsible for developing, implementing, and stewarding Metro 2050, the region’s shared vision of how projected population, housing, and job growth will be managed over the next 30 years. This long-range plan strives to manage anticipated growth coming to the region and was co-created and supported by all municipalities, TransLink, and other regional agencies. Metro Vancouver analyzes and shares data in support of Metro 2050, including producing projections for population, housing, and employment.
The longer the time range of the projections, the higher the level of uncertainty. To address this, Metro Vancouver creates several growth scenarios and updates these projections annually to adapt to new data and trends. The medium growth scenario is considered the most likely, while others explore alternatives that result from different growth assumptions and variables.
The full projections and detailed analyses are available at: metrovancouver.org/services/
