Metro Vancouver’s population projected to reach 4.1 million by 2050

Mike Hurley Photo submitted

METRO Vancouver’s latest population projections indicate slower and less predictable growth than previously projected due to recent federal immigration policy changes. The region is now estimated to grow by an annual average of 42,500 net new residents, reaching a population of 4.1 million people by 2050 — a decrease from the 50,000 projected in 2024.

“Metro Vancouver remains a region that is growing steadily, and our regularly updated projections ensure we continue to plan responsibly for housing, infrastructure, and services that support our growing and diverse communities,” said Mike Hurley, Chair of Metro Vancouver’s Board of Directors.

Key findings in the latest projections include:

  • Metro Vancouver’s population is projected to reach 4.1 million by 2050.
  • Between 2025 and 2027, growth is expected to temporarily slow due to reduced immigration targets and fewer non-permanent residents before returning to more stable growth.
  • Despite policy changes, immigration currently remains the primary driver of population growth in the region, and over the long term, from 2024 to 2051, it will account for 90 per cent of that growth.

The 2025 update reflects significant changes since the previous update in 2024, driven by new data and shifting federal policies. The update includes 2024 population estimates from Statistics Canada; the 2025-2027 Federal Immigration Levels Plan, which significantly reduces immigration targets; and new federal policies that affect non-permanent residents and could further reduce migration levels. Until federal policies stabilize, Metro Vancouver’s long-range projections will continue to fluctuate.

Metro Vancouver’s projections are a critical planning tool used by member jurisdictions, TransLink, and other regional agencies to estimate future demand for land, housing, jobs, utilities, and transit. This data collection and analysis is a core responsibility under the Metro 2050 Regional Growth Strategy, which guides long-term planning for a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable region.

Metro Vancouver will release its long-range projections for jobs and homes later this year and continues to release updates annually.