A new Pallas Data poll has found that the governing NDP has a one-point lead over the BC Conservatives.
Pallas surveyed 821 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on Thursday, August 29. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters:
* The BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 44% (+7% since Pallas’ last poll in May).
* The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 43% (+5%).
* The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 11% (+2%).
“The first look at the British Columbia political landscape since Kevin Falcon’s decision to join forces with the BC Conservatives did not have the intended effect of giving the Conservatives a bigger lead over the NDP, at least not immediately,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data.
This is the first public poll of British Columbia provincial voting intentions since BC United leader Kevin Falcon announced that he would suspend the United campaign and encouraged United supporters to join forces with the BC Conservatives.
“These results mean either one of two things,” said Angolano. “The first is that voters are still considering their options in the context of this news about BC United’s halting of its campaign.”
“The other is that the bulk of right-of-centre United supporters had already left for the Conservatives before Falcon’s announcement, and those remaining supporters were sticking around under the United brand because they did not feel ideologically aligned with the Conservatives.”
The net gains for the other parties in this survey (14%) are almost identical to BC United’s support (13%) in the last Pallas poll in May.
“This suggests that BC United was more a coalition of centrist voters, and some of those voters will go to the NDP and Greens now that United have left the ballot,” continued Angolano.
Most British Columbians disapprove of Kevin Falcon’s decision to suspend BC United’s campaign to support the BC Conservatives: 41% said they disapproved of the decision, compared to 32% who said they supported the move; 23% said that they neither approved nor disapproved of the decision.
“This question is divided mostly along partisan lines,” said Angolano. “While Green and NDP supporters are against Falcon’s decision, Conservative voters are strongly in favour of it.”
Despite the NDP leading, almost half (48%) of British Columbians say the province is headed in the wrong direction; 38% said the province is headed in the right direction.
“The demographic groups that think the province is on the right track are those most likely to support the NDP: women, voters over 65, and Vancouver Island residents,” said Angolano. “The only group where the NDP lead and who said the province is headed in the wrong direction are Greater Vancouver residents.”
The survey also asked respondents about their impressions of the party leaders. No party leader received a positive net score (i.e., more respondents said they had a positive impression of the leader than a negative one).
Green Party leader Sonia Fursteneau and NDP leader David Eby have identical net scores (-6%). However, 32% of respondents said they had a positive impression of Eby, compared to 20% who had a positive impression of Fursteneau. John Rustad has a net score of -17%.
“Eby is the best performer among the three party leaders, but that shouldn’t be taken as voters giving him ringing endorsement over his two opponents,” said Angolano.
You can click here to read the full report.
