“Despite the Conservatives having the tiniest of leads, the NDP would still win an election if it were held today with these numbers”
A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Conservative Party of British Columbia, that has only two seats in the British Columbia legislature, has a slender one-point lead over the governing NDP.
You can click here to read the full report.
Pallas surveyed 848 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on May 14, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 38% support (+36% since the 2020 election), while the governing NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 37% support (-11%). BC United, led by Kevin Falcon, has 13% support (-25%), while the Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 9% support (-6%).
“There has been a complete sea change in British Columbia politics,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Right-of-centre voters have left BC United and flooded to the BC Conservatives.”
“This shift has happened because the BC Liberals changed its name to BC United,” said Angolano. “Branding matters in politics, and BC United is learning that lesson the hard way.”
There is a significant gender split. The Conservatives lead by 14 points among men but are 10 points behind the NDP among women.
The age breakouts also show interesting differences. Support for the Conservatives is highest among respondents between 18 and 34 and drops among older respondents, while the NDP gains support among older respondents.
“Despite the Conservatives having the tiniest of leads, the NDP would still win an election if it were held today with these numbers,” said Angolano.
THE poll also asked three questions measuring knowledge about BC’s political parties.
“We wanted to test if British Columbians understand what was going on with BC United and the BC Conservatives,” said Angolano. “So we felt the best way of measuring that was to create an index of the three questions to measure political knowledge.”
The respondent was given one point if they answered the question correctly. If they answered the question incorrectly, they lost a point. Zero points were awarded if they said they didn’t know the answer. If a respondent got a score of 3, it means they got all the questions correct, while a score of -3 indicates that they answered all the questions incorrectly.
Most voters (61%) are net positives on the knowledge index, getting more questions right than wrong. Twenty percent got all the questions correct.
“Generally, British Columbians know that the BC Liberals are no more and that BC United is the Official Opposition, and likely know what their options will be on the ballot come October,” said Angolano.
“Our research shows that there is not much brand confusion regarding BC United being the new iteration of the BC Liberals,” he continued. “Instead, the name change has created a branding vacuum by BC United abandoning the small-l brand.”
That said, the NDP has a lead among respondents who got a perfect score of 3, indicating that the NDP might do better during an election period where more information is shared about these political parties and knowledge increases.
“BC United’s support does not increase the more knowledgeable voters are,” Angolano said. “This indicates that the hope that former BC Liberal voters would migrate to BC United once they started paying attention when the election starts is incorrect.”
“If anything, the NDP will benefit from the added attention, and voters become better informed, not the Liberals.”
The three questions were true/false questions with a not sure option:
1. The BC Liberals will field a full slate of candidates in the upcoming election.
2. BC United currently forms the Official Opposition in the BC Legislature.
3. The BC Conservative Party is a new political party in British Columbia that will run in its first election this October.
