Bad news for BC Conservatives in latest Angus Reid Institute poll

NEW public opinion data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute reveal a more complete picture of how the campaign is developing.

The Institute polled 2,863 British Columbians in the five days after the televised leaders debate October 8 with a focus on key vote-rich battlegrounds in and around Metro Vancouver.

While overall provincial vote intention shows a five-point lead for the BC NDP (45%) over the BC Conservatives (40%), a closer look reveals what amounts to a statistical tie in communities north-east of Vancouver, constituencies that were once right-leaning strongholds, but flipped NDP in 2020. The incumbents have been in a fight to hold on here, while the BC Conservatives have been looking to pick up where the now-defunct BC Liberals left off.

In less assuring news for the provincial Conservatives, the party appears to have lost crucial momentum in districts south of the Fraser River, notably Richmond, Surrey and Delta. This has come in the wake of public comments condemned by rivals from two Metro Vancouver Conservative candidates, who were kept in the race by leader John Rustad.

That said, the NDP’s advantage is not necessarily predicated by strong enthusiasm for the party that has been in power seven years. Against the backdrop of increasing voter frustration on key files such as cost of living, the addictions crisis, public safety and health care, fully half of New Democrat supporters say they are backing the party because they “really dislike” the other options available to them.

 

THE five-point advantage for the BC NDP may suggest to some that the race is close to being won, but regional analysis suggests plenty of drama on Saturday when the final votes are tallied.

The BC NDP holds a commanding lead in the Vancouver-Burnaby region, where it will hope to garner most of the 17 seats and set up the foundations of forming government. A smaller, but still key lead for David Eby and his party is noted in Richmond-Surrey, where a number of competitive races are expected, including Richmond-Steveston and Surrey-Cloverdale. On Vancouver Island and the North Coast all three parties expect to compete, where the BC NDP lead with 44 per cent vote intention currently compared to 36 per cent for the B.C. Conservatives and 19 per cent for the BC Greens.

The Conservative path to victory lays in winning key races in those above regions while sweeping most of the Interior-North region, and the Fraser Valley. The party is strongest in the both those portions of the province, receiving approximately half of vote intention in each. In the Tri-Cities and extending out to Abbotsford and Langley the vote intention showdown shows little daylight.

 

BRITISH Columbians are more concerned about the Conservatives’ ability to manage health care than other top issues. Two-in-five (40%) say John Rustad and the Conservatives are “least capable” at improving health care access for their household.

The re-emergence of the importance of access to health care in the minds of BC voters is something of a political saving grace, then, for Eby and the New Democrats. Early in the race, cost of living hands-down the top issue for British Columbians. In May, two-thirds (66%) selected it as a top issue facing the province. Since then, concern over health care has grown while worry over inflation has fallen away, leaving health care in the top spot, selected by approaching three-in-five (58%). The high cost of living still outpaces other concerns, such as housing affordability, public safety and climate change.

 

OPINION of Rustad is trending in the wrong direction as the campaign comes to a close. All demographics are more likely to say their opinion of the BC Conservative leader has worsened, but that is especially true among women. Eby performs better by this metric. But, with the exception of men aged 18 to 34, men and women of all ages are more likely to say their opinion of the premier has worsened. BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is the only leader to have generated positive momentum in the past week of the campaign.

Perahps due to her success on the debate stage, those who view Furstenau as the best choice for premier have doubled since the end of September. However, she still trails Rustad (30%) and Eby (35%) on this measure.

Eby is viewed as the best choice for premier by 18- to 34-year-olds (41%) and women (37%), while two-in-five men older than 34 believe Rustad is the best choice to lead the province.

 

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Oct. 9-13, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 2,863 Canadian adults living in BC who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

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