ABACUS Data Daily Tracking: LPC 34, CPC 30, NDP 21


  • The Liberals have opened up a clear national lead over the Conservatives – 34% to 30% with the NDP at 21%, the BQ at 6% and the People’s Party at 5%. The Liberals have a 9-point lead in Ontario, a 13-point lead in Quebec, and a 25-point in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives lead in the Prairies while the Conservatives and NDP are tied in BC.
  • 53% of those who have voted or definitely plan to vote, say it’s definitely time for a change of government whereas 23% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office – only a one-point change from yesterday.
  • NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the most favourable image (+18), while Mr. Trudeau, Mr. O’Toole, and Ms. Paul all have net negatives. Mr. O’Toole’s image has continued to get worse while Mr. Trudeau’s has improved slightly from yesterday.
  • 30% of those who haven’t voted but have a first preference say they could still change their mind before they vote. 4% of non-voters are entirely undecided.

With four days to go, the Liberals may have some momentum, gaining 3 points in 5 days and opening up bigger leads in Ontario and Quebec despite the NDP support holding.