ABASCUS Data’s final poll of the federal election — 2,500 interviews conducted April 24-27 — including only Canadians who say they have already voted in an advance poll or are almost certain to cast a ballot tomorrow, puts the Liberals at 41%, the Conservatives at 39%, the NDP at 10%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the People’s Party at 3 %, and the Greens at 1%.

Regional battlegrounds

Ontario remains the Liberal firewall but things have tightened there: 45% LPC, 42% CPC, 7% NDP

British Columbia is the mirror image: 40% CPC, 38% LPC, 17% NDP—margin-of-error stuff with some three-way seat splits likely.

Quebec shows the Bloc parked at 29%, ten points behind the Liberals at 39%, and Conservatives stuck at 20%.

Atlantic Canada delivers the Liberals their widest margin (56% vs. 37%).

The Prairies do the same for Conservatives: Alberta 58% CPC, Saskatchewan–Manitoba 47% CPC, though Liberals post competitive 19% and 39% respectively, enough to hold and maybe gain some urban seats.

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