JUST a day after a new Liaison Strategies British Columbia Political Tracker found the BC NDP leading the BC Conservatives 41% to 36% among decided and leaning voters, an Angus Reid Institute poll says the BC Conservatives have the support of 43 per cent of B.C. voters, compared to 35 per cent for the New Democrats.
The Angus Reid Institute says the reversal of fortune for the BC NDP has been swift: as recently as 10 days ago, the governing party had a slim four-point advantage over the BC Conservatives.
Ire over the timing of the early election call may be driving some of the backlash. Fully two-thirds of the province says it’s “too soon” to be going to the polls – including 71 per cent of BC Conservative voters but crucially – half of BC NDP voters (52%), too.
Further, two-thirds (65%) of the province say David Eby is putting his own interests ahead of the province in calling this election.
The New Democrats will also have to work to pull back its 2024 voting base back together. Currently, only 65 per cent of those who voted for the party two years ago say they’ll do the same again. This compares to 85 per cent of past BC Conservative voters who are ready to re-commit.
It is early days in the campaign however, as underscored by the one-in-five who say they are undecided about their vote choice, and the fact that only 35 per cent say they are “very certain” about which party they will support.
A majority (56%) of British Columbians believe the opposition Conservatives “are not ready to govern B.C.”, including one-in-five (22%) current BC Conservative supporters who express reservation.
Few current BC NDP or BC Greens supporters see the BC Conservatives as a government-in-waiting.
The Angus Reid Institute points out that the interim leader of the BC Conservatives, Lorne Doerkson, who will become the permanent leader should the party form government after the election, still has plenty of work to do to keep a fractured caucus rowing in the same direction.
It is perhaps no surprise given the amount of uncertainty in the political scene, and the surprise election call, that many in the electorate (20%) aren’t sure which box they’ll mark come October 24.
The BC Conservatives, despite the turmoil, lead the incumbent BC NDP, with third parties in the BC Greens, OneBC, and CentreBC potentially in contention for picking up seats throughout the province.
The Conservatives garner half of vote intention in Fraser Valley and the Interior and they lead in Metro Vancouver, which does not bode well for the incumbent BC NDP. Eby’s party leads on the Island, where the BC Greens’ popularity will create three-way races.
The BC Conservatives’ 16-point lead among those older than 54 is perhaps most concerning for the BC NDP at this point in the campaign because of that demographics’ historically higher turnout in Canadian elections. The BC Greens perform best among 18- to 34-year-olds, who are less reliable voters.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from September 22-24 among a randomized sample of 801 British Columbian adults. Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/– 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
