FOLLOWING the abrupt departure of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, the Conservative Party has widened their lead to 25 points, according to EKOS Politics.

At 19 points, the Liberals are now below the 20-point mark for the first time since Justin Trudeau took the party helm. The NDP are at 18 points and, although they are statistically tied with the second-place Liberals, their fortunes do not appear to have improved in the wake of this week’s events.

The Bloc Québécois, meanwhile, has seen some modest gains and now stands at 36 points in Quebec. If an election were held tomorrow, we would see an overwhelming Conservative majority with the Bloc Québécois serving as the Official Opposition.

Regionally, the Conservatives hold a solid lead everywhere outside Quebec. Indeed, the party enjoys a narrow majority of popular support in both Atlantic Canada, traditionally a Liberal stronghold, and British Columbia, which has usually been an unpredictable three-way race.

The Conservatives hold a huge lead with men, though the race is considerably tighter among women. The party also leads handily among all age and educational cohorts, including the university educated, where the Conservatives have historically struggled to make inroads.

The field dates for this survey are December 16-19. In total, a random sample of 1,061 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, and education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.