THE federal Conservative Party amassed a sizeable lead over the governing Liberal Party in Canada, on the weekend prior to Justin Trudeau’s announced resignation as prime minister, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample, 47% of decided voters in Canada would support the Conservative candidate in their riding if an election took place tomorrow, up seven points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August 2024.
The governing Liberal Party is a distant second with 21% (-4), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% (-2), the Bloc Québécois with 10% (+1), the Green Party with 3% (-3) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).
The Conservatives are the most popular party for decided voters in Atlantic Canada (58%, +7), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (57%, +17) Alberta (56%, +1), British Columbia (54%, +4), and Ontario (51%, +12). In Quebec, the Bloc is first (37%, +4), followed by the Conservatives (29%, +8) and the Liberals (21%, -7).
Almost three-in-ten Canadians (29%, -3) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important concern facing the country, followed by the economy and jobs (22%, -3), health care (16%, +1), immigration (13%, +3) and the environment (6%, =).
As was the case in August 2024, Official Opposition and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has the highest approval rating among all federal leaders (52%, =). The numbers are lower for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (39%, -3), Prime Minister and Liberal leader Trudeau (34%, =), Green leader Elizabeth May (32%, -3), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (27%, +2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (23%, -3).
On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Poilievre is first with 39% (+2), followed by Trudeau (21%, -1) and Singh (12%, -2).
A majority of Canadians (55%, +1) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being in charge of Canada’s economy. Just over a third (34%, =) are currently comfortable with Trudeau in this position.
The survey re-asked some questions posed to Canadians in October 2023 about possible cooperation between the Liberals and the New Democrats.
Just over two-in-five Canadians (41%, -7) would welcome a formal agreement where the Liberal Party and the NDP share power in a coalition government. Fewer are in favour of two other ideas: an agreement to only run candidates from one of the two parties in every riding in Canada in the next federal election (34%, -1) or a full merger between the two parties (33%, -3).
When Canadians ponder a vote with a merged Liberal-NDP party, the Conservatives remain ahead in scenarios with Trudeau (48% to 31%) or Singh (46% to 34%) as leaders of the new political organization.
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from January 3 to January 5, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
