Monday’s federal by-elections: Good news for Liberals, bad news for Conservatives and NDP  


Justin Trudeau: Still on top
Photo by Sukhwant Singh Dhillon



THE Liberals’ victory in the Quebec federal riding of Lac-Saint-Jean on Monday is good news for the Liberals under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose personal popularity remains high as compared to Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer and new NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

The latest Nanos weekly federal ballot tracking shows that Trudeau remains the preferred choice as Prime Minister at 42.2 per cent of Canadians in spite of some recent controversies, followed by Scheer at 22.4 per cent and Tom Mulcair / Jagmeet Singh at 9.5 per cent.

The Conservatives had held the riding for a decade and a victory for them would have been a real shot in the arm for their new leader. Unfortunately for Scheer, this was more of a disaster because this is the first by-election in this Parliament in which an incumbent party has lost.

The NDP were a distant fourth – the Bloc Quebecois were third – and that must be a real disappointment for Jagmeet Singh. A good showing by the NDP would have been a morale booster for him and his party. Indeed, Jagmeet Singh has a tough road ahead, but he has the drive and calibre to go far.

The latest Nanos weekly poll shows that in the “qualities of a good political leader” category, while 59.8% of Canadians believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader, 37 per cent believe Mulcair / Singh have the qualities of a good political leader. Scheer comes third with 33.3 per cent of Canadians saying that he has the qualities of a good political leader, with 35 per cent believing the same about May.

Liberal candidate Richard Hébert, a local mayor, won the riding with 38.6 per cent of the votes. The Conservative candidate got 25 per cent of the vote, followed closely by the BQ candidate who garnered 23.4 per cent of the vote. The NDP’s candidate won 11.7 per cent of the vote.

In 2015, the Conservatives won the riding with 33.3 per cent of the vote, while the NDP got 28 per cent. The Liberals and the BQ got 18.4 per cent each.

Hopefully, this victory won’t make Trudeau arrogant. Remember the famous proverb: Pride comes before a fall? However, this fall, Trudeau didn’t fall in Quebec (excuse the pun!)

The latest Nanos weekly poll has the Liberals at 35 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 30.8 per cent, the NDP at 17.7 percent, the BQ at 6.3 per cent and the Greens at 6.9 per cent.

In Alberta, as expected, the Conservatives won easily from former interim party leader Rona Ambrose’s riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland. Its candidate, Dane Lloyd had won 75 per cent of the votes after three-quarters of the poll had wrapped up. Ambrose had won the riding in 2015 with more than 70 per cent of the vote.