Conservatives retain 16-point lead
AMID a flurry of recent political events, the Liberals have experienced a modest boost in their fortunes. The party now sits at 25.8 per cent, a six-point improvement from December’s political crisis sparked by the resignation of Chrystia Freeland, says EKOS Politics
It remains unclear whether this boost is due to Trudeau’s resignation, heightened media coverage surrounding the upcoming leadership race, Donald Trump’s renewed threats to annex Canada, or some other factor.
In any case, the Conservatives maintain a commanding 16-point lead at 41.6 per cent and would almost certainly secure a majority government if an election were held tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NDP remains stagnant at 16.7 per cent and has not shown signs of movement for months.
Regionally, the Liberals have regained their lead in Atlantic Canada; however, this finding should be interpreted with caution given the small sample size in the region. The Conservatives continue to dominate in Ontario and Alberta, while Quebec has become a two-way race between the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives, with the Liberals trailing in third.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives hold a lead, though it has narrowed considerably in recent weeks. However, given the historically fluidic nature of the province, major swings in vote intention are not uncommon.
The Conservatives hold a massive lead with men – particularly young men – and the party leads comfortably with every age cohort except seniors. The party enjoys a lead with every educational and social class cohort, though their advantage with university graduates has eroded somewhat.
This survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline-only random digit dialling (RDD), EKOS created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, EKOS is able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cellphone-only households and landline-only households.
The field dates for this survey are January 5-8, 2025. In total, a random sample of 953 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, and education).
