NDP 41%, BC Conservatives 38%, BC Greens 10%, BC United 9%: Research Co. poll

David Eby Photo: Eby website

NDP ahead of the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (44% to 35%)

 

PUBLIC support for the Conservative Party of BC increased markedly in the past month, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 41% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2024) would support the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency if the election were held today, while 38% (+5) would cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party remains in third place with 10% (-5), followed by BC United—currently the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly—with 9% (-2). Other parties and independent candidates have the support of 2% of decided voters (=).

The BC NDP is ahead of the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (44% to 35%) and Vancouver Island (43% to 32%), while the BC Conservatives lead the BC NDP in Northern BC (57% to 31%) and the Fraser Valley (47% to 28%).

“The race has tightened considerably in Southern BC, where the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives are virtually tied (40% to 38%)” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In June, the BC New Democrats were 11 points ahead of the BC Conservatives in this region of British Columbia (44% to 33%).”

The BC NDP remains popular among women (47%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (49%). The BC Conservatives are first among men (41%) and decided voters aged 18-to-34 (45%).

Fewer than half of British Columbians (48%, -5) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby has handled his duties. The rating is lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (39%, -1), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -4), and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (29%, -3).

There is a significant gender gap in the rating of one of the two main party leaders. Half of women in British Columbia (50%) approve of Eby, but just 32% feel the same way about Rustad. Among men, the two leaders post practically the same numbers (Eby 46%, Rustad 47%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians say they would consider voting for the BC New Democrats (51%, -3) or the BC Conservatives (45%, -1) if they ran a candidate in their riding. The proportions are lower for the BC Greens (36%, -2) and BC United (32%, -2).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is still the most important issue facing the province for British Columbians (42%, +2), followed by health care (21%, +1), the economy and jobs (14%, -3), the environment (6%, +1) and crime and public safety (5%, -3).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2024, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.