NDP (44%) lead Conservatives (42%) and Greens (11%)

A new Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC shows the NDP with a very slim 2-point advantage over the Conservatives as the 2024 campaign reaches the finish line. While the overall NDP lead is within the survey’s margin of error, the NDP leads by 13-points in seat rich Metro Vancouver and by 17-points among the typically higher turnout 55+ age group.

Ipsos says an NDP victory is by no means a certainty and they are sure to lose some of the seats they picked up in 2020. This election will come down to turnout – who has already voted and who will show up on election day – as well as to some last minute ballot box decisions. BC has surprised before and the range of outcomes in this election includes an NDP majority, a Conservative majority and the potential for the Greens to hold a balance of power.

There are three top issues for voters in this provincial election – cost of living / inflation (49%), healthcare (33%) and housing affordability and availability (30%). Secondary issues include jobs and the economy (14%), crime and public safety (12%), taxes (11%) and social issues like poverty and homelessness (11%).

* Comparison to Post Debate Poll (Oct 9-10): We found the same top three issues in our Post Debate Poll – cost of living/inflation (51%), health care (35%) and housing affordability and availability (31%).

Voter preferences remain withing the margin of error. Currently, 44% of decided voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the New Democrats. The Conservatives are next at 42% support, followed by the Greens at 11%. Total ‘other party’ support is 3%. These results exclude the 12% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

* Comparison to Post Debate Poll (October 9-10): All parties are currently within two points of our Post Debate Poll – NDP (46%), Conservatives (41%), Greens (10%), Others (3%).

The NDP leads by 13-points in Metro Vancouver (51% NDP vs. 38% CONS) and by 12-points on Vancouver Island (45% NDP vs. 33% CONS). The Conservatives lead by a substantial 24-point margin in the Southern Interior / North (55% CONS vs. 31% NDP). The Green Party does better outside Metro Vancouver (17% on Vancouver Island, 12% in Interior / North vs. 8% in Metro Vancouver).

The NDP leads by 17-points among older voters (NDP 53% vs. CONS 36% among 55+ years) while the Conservatives have a 13-point lead among 35-54 year old voters (CONS 49% vs. NDP 36% among 35-54 years). The Conservatives also have a smaller 5-point lead among younger voters (CONS 45% vs. NDP 40% among 18-34 years).

There is a significant gender gap as the NDP leads by 13-points with women (49% NDP vs. 36% CONS) and the Conservatives have an 8-point lead among men (CONS 48% vs. NDP 40%).

BC voters lean towards this being a change election. Nearly half (48%) say it’s time for another provincial party to take over, while slightly less than four in-ten (37%) say the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Fifteen percent are undecided.

* Comparison to Post Debate Poll (October 9-10): Time for a change sentiment has increased compared to our Post Debate Poll – time for another provincial party to take over (43%), the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election (38%).

David Eby (34%) has only a slight 5-point lead over John Rustad (29%) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier of the province. Sonia Furstenau remains a distant third (13%). One-quarter (24%) of British Columbians are still undecided.

* Comparison to Post Debate Poll (October 9-10): Rustad has gained ground on Eby compared to our Post Debate Poll – Eby (35%), Rustad (25%), Furstenau (12%).