51% approve of performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby

THE governing BC NDP and the Conservative Party of BC are statistically tied as British Columbia awaits the official start of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters say they would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their riding, while 42% would support the BC Conservatives.

Since the Research Co.’s July 2024 survey—conducted before Official Opposition leader Kevin Falcon suspended the BC United campaign—support for the two main parties has increased: by three points for the BC New Democrats and by four points for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party is third across the province with 10% (=), while 3% of decided voters (+1) would back other parties or independent candidates.

This month, the BC NDP remains ahead among women (47%) and voters aged 55 and over (51%). The BC Conservatives lead among men (48%) and voters aged 35-to-54 (46%). The race is close among decided voters aged 18-to-34: 40% for the BC NDP and 39% for the BC Conservatives.

The BC NDP is in first place in Metro Vancouver (50%) and Vancouver Island (44%), while the BC Conservatives are ahead in the Fraser Valley (57%), Southern BC (51%) and Northern BC (42%).

“The disappearance of BC United has propelled the BC Conservatives to first place in Southern BC, where the race was exceptionally close in July,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, 16% of decided voters in Northern BC are willing to support other parties or independent candidates—the highest proportion across all five regions of British Columbia.”

The BC NDP is keeping just over three-in-four voters (76%) who supported the party under John Horgan in the last provincial election. The BC Green Party is only holding on to 43% of its voters from the 2020 ballot, with 41% of them going to the BC Conservatives and 14% going to the BC NDP.

The BC Conservatives are the choice of three-in-five voters (60%) who cast ballots for BC Liberal candidates in 2020, while 29% of them are now with the BC NDP.

For the first time since we started tracking this question in May 2023, a majority of British Columbians say they would consider casting a ballot for the BC Conservatives (52%, +7) if they nominated a candidate in their constituency. The results on this question are higher for the BC New Democrats (55%, +4) and lower for the BC Greens (40%, +4).

Just over half of British Columbians (51%, +3) approve of the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby. The rating is lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (48%, +9) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (41%, +6).

More than a third of British Columbians (36%) think Eby would make the Best Premier among the three party leaders, while 27% select Rustad and 12% pick Furstenau. One-in-four respondents (25%) are undecided on this question.

Among men, Eby and Rustad are tied on the “Best Premier” question (34% each), while Eby holds a substantial edge over Rustad among women (38% to 21%).

There has been little change on the issue landscape over the past two months. More than two-in-five British Columbians (41%, -1) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most prevalent concern facing the province, followed by health care (21%, =), the economy and jobs (14%, =), crime and public safety (6%, +1) and the environment (4%, -2).

Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 9 to September 11, 2024, among a representative sample of 802 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.