The seat math currently favours Liberals: Forum Poll

Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer

FOLLOWING a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1,853 Canadian voters conducted September 30-October 1, among those decided and leaning, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research, says: “The race continues to be even, with the Liberals and the Conservatives tied in percentage of voter support. The seat math, however, currently favours the Liberals, and suggests a minority.”

He adds: “The environment and climate change tops the list of election issues, with more than a third saying it’s the most important one to them in this campaign.”

A third (31%) say they would support the Conservatives if the election were held today, while a similar proportion (34%) say they support the Liberals.  

One in 10 (12%) say they would support the Greens, while a similar proportion (12%) say they would support the NDP.   About 1 in 20 (6%) say they would support the Bloc Quebecois, while a similar proportion would support the People’s Party of Canada (4%). Few (2%) are supporting another party.  

If these results were projected into seats, the Forum Poll expects a minority parliament with the Liberals holding 168 seats and with the Conservatives holding 130.  

The NDP would win 21, the BQ would win 15, and the Greens would win four.  

Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau sees approval from more than a third (36%) and disapproval from more than half (55%), with about 1 in 10 (9%) saying they don’t know. His net favourable score is -19 (approve-disapprove).  

A third (30%) say they approve of Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer.   Half (52%) say they disapprove. One-fifth (18%) say they don’t know. Scheer’s net favourable score is -22 (approve-disapprove).  

A third (35%) say they approve of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh,  while a similar proportion (34%) say they disapprove.   A third (31%) also say they don’t know. Singh’s net favourable score is +1 (approve-disapprove).  

More than four in 10 (39%) say they approve of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, down slightly since mid-September (September 20: 44%) while a third (30%) say they disapprove. A third(30%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score is +9, down from +14 (September 20) (approve-disapprove).  

A third (31%) say Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister, while a similar proportion (29%) say that Scheer would.   Both Singh (13%) and May (9%) are seen as best PM by one in 10. One-fifth (18%) say they don’t know who would make the best PM.  

Half (50%) say Canada is doing better than four years ago, with one-sixth (16%) saying it’s much better. Half (50%) say it’s doing worse, with a third (31%) saying it’s doing much worse.  

The environment and climate change is the top issue in the current federal election, with a third (32%) saying it’s most important to them. One-fifth (21%) say it’s the economy, while a sixth (14%) say it’s healthcare, including pharmacare.