Slowing population growth rate due to fewer non-permanent residents, says Statistics Canada

ON January 1, 2025, Canada’s population reached 41,528,680 people. This corresponds to an increase of 63,382 people compared with October 1, 2024, or a quarterly growth rate of 0.2%, according to Statistics Canada.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the quarterly growth (+0.2%) continued the slowdown that began after the peak reached in the third quarter of 2023 (+1.1%). It marked the slowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2020 (+0.1%), when border restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic were also in place.

The fourth quarter typically sees slower growth, as international migration and births tend to decline and deaths to rise during the colder months. The growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 was similar to what was seen in the same quarter of each year in the decade before the start of the pandemic (ranging from +0.0% to +0.3% during the period from 2009 to 2019).

There were 28,341 fewer non-permanent residents in the country on January 1, 2025, than on October 1, 2024. This was the first quarterly decrease in the number of non-permanent residents since the fourth quarter of 2021 (-15,299) and was the largest decline since the third quarter of 2020 (-67,698), when the pandemic-related border restrictions limited the growth in the number of non-permanent residents.

Before 2022, a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents was common in the fourth quarter, as many non-permanent resident permits expire on December 31. The increases in the fourth quarters of 2022 and 2023 were mostly attributable to a rise in the numbers of work permit holders.

The 3,020,936 non-permanent residents in the country on January 1, 2025, made up 7.3% of the total population, down slightly from 3,049,277 non-permanent residents (7.4%) on October 1, 2024.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the decrease in the number of people holding only a study permit (-32,643) was somewhat tempered by the increasing number of asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups (+25,774), which rose for the 12th consecutive quarter and reached a new record high of 457,285 people. The number of people with only a study permit decreased in every quarter in 2024. Work permit holders only, including those who may also simultaneously have held a study permit (1,791,726), decreased by 18,435 in the fourth quarter of 2024, following 11 straight quarters of increases.

 

CANADA’S population increased by 744,324 people in 2024, a growth rate of 1.8%. While this growth rate was lower than those in 2022 (+2.5%) and 2023 (+3.1%), it was higher than that in any year from 1972 to 2021. This may reflect a transition back to the population growth patterns seen before the start of the pandemic.

Notably, more than two-thirds (67.7%) of the population increase (+504,243 people) occurred in the first two quarters of the year. Typically, growth is more evenly distributed throughout the year.

Canada’s population growth is driven by international migration. Accordingly, as the number of immigrants admitted or the number of non-permanent residents decreases, so does overall population growth. In 2024, the Government of Canada announced policies to limit the number of non-permanent residents. The slower growth in the second half of the year could reflect the implementation of some of these policies.

However, because of low levels of natural increase (births minus deaths), international migration still accounted for 98.5% of the total growth (+62,401 people) in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 97.3% of the growth over the full year (+724,586 people).

The number of non-permanent residents increased from 2,729,771 on January 1, 2024, to 3,020,936 on January 1, 2025—an increase of 291,165, which is nearly three times smaller than the increase in 2023 (+820,766). Most of the increase in 2024 took place in the first (+154,483) and second (+117,836) quarters, with the second half of the year seeing a net gain of 18,846 people.

 

CANADA welcomed 103,481 permanent immigrants in the fourth quarter of 2024, similar to levels seen in the same quarter from 2021 to 2023.

In total, Canada gained 483,591 permanent immigrants in 2024, in line with the 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. This marks the highest number of immigrants welcomed in any year since 1972 (when comparable data became available), with Newfoundland and Labrador (5,808), Prince Edward Island (3,981), Nova Scotia (14,234), New Brunswick (15,497), Alberta (66,359), Yukon (939), the Northwest Territories (420), and Nunavut (66) all welcoming record-high numbers of immigrants.