THE drop in approval for the Carney government hasn’t continued in Abacus Data’s latest wave of research.
David Coletto, Chairman and CEO of Abacus Data says: “Our latest national survey of 3,080 Canadian adults finds that the shifts we detected earlier this month have not continued. After seeing softer government approval, declining optimism, and signs of a more competitive political environment two weeks ago, this latest wave suggests the electorate has largely stabilized.”
Today, 45% of committed voters would support the Liberals, compared with 37% for the Conservatives, leaving the Liberals with an eight-point national lead. The NDP sits at 9%, while the Bloc Québécois is at 6%.
Government approval has also rebounded modestly. Fifty-five percent approve of the job the federal government is doing, while 30% disapprove. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s personal ratings remain strong and unchanged, with a net favourability rating of +21. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s ratings are also largely unchanged, leaving Carney with a substantial advantage in overall public impressions.
The public mood remains mixed. While 42% believe Canada is headed in the right direction and 44% think it is on the wrong track, that represents a slight improvement from earlier this month. At the same time, Canadians remain overwhelmingly pessimistic about the state of the world and the direction of the United States.
The cost of living remains the dominant issue facing the country, followed by the economy, healthcare, housing affordability, and concerns about Donald Trump and his administration. Despite ongoing debates about economic conditions, energy policy, and international affairs, Canadians continue to focus on the same core concerns they have identified for months.
The key takeaway from this survey is not movement, but stability.
The surge of optimism that followed Carney’s arrival as Prime Minister has clearly levelled off. Yet there is also little evidence that the government is experiencing a sustained decline in support. For now, the Liberals retain a broad coalition, maintain an advantage on many of the issues Canadians care most about, and continue to hold a larger accessible voter pool than the Conservatives.
Politics often changes when several indicators begin moving in the same direction at the same time. Right now, that isn’t happening, says Coletto.
You can access the full poll here: https://abacusdata.ca/federal-
