A new Liaison Strategies British Columbia Political Tracker finds the BC NDP leading the BC Conservatives 41% to 36% among decided and leaning voters as the provincial election begins, despite half of British Columbians saying the province is heading in the wrong direction.
The BC Greens stand at 12%, CentreBC and OneBC at 4% each, and other parties at 3%. The survey was conducted September 21-22, overlapping the election call and the latest changes in opposition party affiliations.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said: “The NDP begins this campaign five points ahead, but there is no overwhelming enthusiasm for the government. Meanwhile, the Conservatives remain competitive after a period of extraordinary turmoil.”
He said: “The province’s mood is the warning sign for the NDP. Fifty per cent say B.C. is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 36% who say the right direction and 15% who are unsure.”
Valentin said: “Eby’s approval is almost evenly divided: 42% approve, 43% disapprove and 15% are unsure. The Conservatives have an opening and now the question is what they can do with the limited time they have.
“[BC Conservative Interim Leader] Doerkson has a substantial introduction to make. Twenty-one per cent have a favourable view of him and 29% an unfavourable view. Another 23% are familiar with him but unsure, while 27% are not familiar with him. Half the province has not settled on an opinion of the new interim Conservative leader.
“That leaves room for him to make a favourable impression, but also room for his opponents to define him. The Conservatives need to spend this campaign explaining why they should govern, rather than explaining what is happening inside their own party.
“The regional divide is pronounced. Among decided and leaning voters, the NDP leads 43% to 34% in the Vancouver metropolitan area and 45% to 32% on Vancouver Island. Across the rest of B.C., the Conservatives lead 42% to 35%. Those are smaller samples, but they show why the provincewide result is only part of the electoral picture.
“Women favour the NDP over the Conservatives by 45% to 33%, while men favour the Conservatives 41% to 37%. Women are also more likely to be undecided on the initial vote question, at 29% compared with 19% of men. The NDP leads among women who have a preference, but many women have yet to make a choice.
“The Greens are at 12%, while Emily Lowan is viewed favourably by 20% and unfavourably by another 20%. Twenty-six per cent are unsure and 34% are unfamiliar with her. She, too, has an opportunity to become better known during the campaign.
“CentreBC and OneBC each register 4%. Those votes cannot simply be added to the Conservative column. Politicians returning to a party does not mean every voter follows them.”
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 British Columbians from September 21 to September 22 using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples, including decided and leaning voters. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
