NEW data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds those in B.C. who support the federal Conservatives are more likely to support the provincial Conservatives than BC United in the pending B.C. election. More than half (56%) of likely federal Conservative voters place their vote with the provincial Conservatives currently. This comes as BC Conservative leader John Rustad has promised to “axe” B.C’s carbon tax if his party were to win the coming election, aligning himself with federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who has not officially endorsed either United or the provincial Conservatives.
As the federal Conservatives rise in popularity in the province, both Rustad and BC United leader Kevin Falcon are jockeying for right of centre support. Both have taken aim at the province’s carbon tax, though Falcon has only said the party will remove the tax if the CPCs form government federally and axe it nationwide. The issue is perhaps more difficult to navigate for Falcon, as United’s support straddles both federal Liberals and federal Conservatives. On one hand, it is perhaps beneficial for the party formerly known as the BC Liberals to have a foot in both camps, giving Falcon a larger centre-right pool of voters to pull from. On the other, it also means BC United is fighting a two-front war to keep voters from defecting to the Conservatives on its right and bolstering the NDP on its left.
The BC NDP finds itself as the dominant choice for left-of-centre voters, attracting both federal Liberal and NDP supporters. Vote splitting is still an issue for the party in ridings it competes with the BC Greens, who have traditionally been strong on the island and along the Sunshine Coast. The Greens have attracted one-in-six voters in each of the past two elections.
Premier David Eby and the NDP government released their pre-election budget in March, projecting a near $8-billion deficit. Despite this, government spending is not typically seen as a major issue for the NDP’s base. Instead, for federal NDP and Liberal supporters, health care and affordability are higher priorities. In both cases, while majorities among those groups feel the government is performing poorly on the issues, they are more likely to praise Eby and the NDP’s handling of the files than others.
Despite that criticism, (49%) of federal Liberal supporters and a majority (58%) of federal NDP supporters believe now is not the time for a change in government in B.C. This bodes well for Eby and the provincial NDP who currently enjoy the support of a coalition including four-in-five (82%) federal NDP supporters and more than half (57%) of federal Liberal supporters.
Falcon and United lead among no federal party supporters but do appear to have more appeal among federal Liberals than Rustad and the BC Conservatives. The BC Conservatives are currently the preferred choice of federal Conservative supporters.
Rustad and Falcon profile similarly among age and gender demographics, but Falcon’s negatives are much higher than Rustad’s. However, Rustad is much less known; at least two-in-five of all ages say they don’t have an opinion of the BC Conservative leader.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Feb. 28 to March 6, 2024 among a representative randomized sample 809 British Columbian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/
