AS British Columbia gears up for the October provincial election, the latest Leger polling data indicates a sustained, substantial lead for the BC NDP under the leadership of David Eby, with a robust 43% of support among decided voters. This reflects a stable support base, despite the increase in vote share from the BC Conservatives.

Every few months, Leger, in partnership with Global Public Affairs, conducts a study on the performance of the British Columbian government. This time, the study was conducted between March 22 and 24, 2024.

“The surge in support for the BC Conservatives underscores the shifting political landscape in British Columbia, with John Rustad’s leadership resonating particularly strongly among voters in Metro Vancouver, pointing to a possible shift in seat distribution,” said Nicole Brassard, Vice President of Global Public Affairs.

BC United faces a formidable challenge as it attempts to recover from a decline in poll standings now at 18%, while the BC Conservatives experience a notable surge in voter support, standing at 26%. The rise of the BC Conservatives from a marginal choice to a serious contender is particularly evident in Metro Vancouver where 28% of decided voters prefer the BC Conservatives compared to just 19% support for the BC United. Additionally, the BC Greens are holding steady at 11%. Despite these evolving dynamics, the BC NDP sustains a generous lead as the province moves closer to election day.

Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre’s “Axe the Tax” campaign to eliminate the carbon tax at the federal level reveals significant support among 56% of British Columbians, while 29% oppose the campaign. This comes on the heels of a 3% decline in the environment as the most important voter issue.

Housing affordability remains the top issue in B.C. (and has remained so since May 2016) followed by health care and inflation/rising interest rates, highlighting the current economic and social challenges facing the province. Notably, healthcare saw a 15% increase (from 40% to 55%) in total importance from September 2023 to March 2024 for those in the 55+ age group.

This web survey was conducted from March 22 to 24, 2024, with 1,002 British Columbians aged 18 or older, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison, a probability sample of 1,002 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3.1 %, 19 times out of 20.