Liberals open up clear leads in Ontario and Quebec: Abacus Data

BY BRUCE ANDERSON & DAVID COLETTO

Abacus Data

WE just completed a national survey of 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote in the current federal election completed entirely after the French and English leaders’ debates last week.

If an election were held now, the Conservatives would win 32% of the vote (unchanged), the Liberals 32% (unchanged), the NDP 21% (unchanged), the Green Party 3% (unchanged) and the BQ at 29% in Quebec (down 2). The People’s Party is at 4% nationally.

• In BC, we see a very tight three-way race with the NDP at 31%, the Liberals at 31%, and the Conservatives at 29%.

• In Alberta, 57% would vote Conservative compared with 23% for the NDP, 11% for the Liberals, 3% for the People’s Party and 1% for the Maverick Party.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead with 43% followed by the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 18%.

• In Ontario, the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the Conservatives (38% to 31%) with the NDP at 23%.

• Within Ontario, the Liberals have a 21-point lead over the Conservatives in Toronto and a 14-point lead in the surrounding region. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied in eastern Ontario while the Conservatives lead by 12 in the southwest.

• In Quebec, we see the Liberals ahead of the BQ by 7 points with the Conservatives at 17% and the NDP at 13%. This is a rise for the Liberals of 4 points and a drop for the BQ of 2 points.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals are ahead by 3 over the Conservatives (39% to 36%) with the NDP at 15%.

The Conservatives lead among those who say they will definitely vote by 4-points (35% to 31%) This is largely unchanged from our last poll.

PREFERRED ELECTION OUTCOME

Asked which of four (most likely based on today’s numbers) outcomes they would prefer, 60% would prefer a Liberal victory (30% majority, 30% minority) while 40% would prefer a Conservative win (15% minority, 25% majority). This is mostly unchanged from our last survey.

EXPECTED ELECTION OUTCOME

As of today, 37% expect the Liberals to win (unchanged from our last poll), followed by 28% who expect the Conservatives to win (down 2 since the last wave and +10 since the start of the campaign), and 7% who expect the NDP to come out on top.

When asked whether the election will be close or will one party win by a lot, 75% think it will be close (up 4 points) while 13% think one party will win by a lot. 12% are not sure. Among LPC/NDP switchers 82% think it will be close.

Those who would prefer the LPC to win but think the Conservatives are going to win makes up 5% of the electorate – holding steady from last week.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

Today, 49% definitely want to see a change in government (unchanged from last week) while another 21% say it would be good to have a change, but it is not really that important to them (up 1), for a total of 70% who would prefer a change in government.

The vote preference by change group is important to understanding the election. Among those who prefer change but say it isn’t that important to them (21% of the electorate at the moment), the Liberals have opened up a 13-point lead over the NDP with the Conservatives in third. Liberal re-election hopes continue to ride on how this group ultimately leans and Mr. Trudeau’s party seem to be gaining over timing.

Among those who say they want to keep the Liberals in office but it’s not important to them, 74% would vote Liberal compared with 9% who would vote NDP.

 

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 10 to 12, 2021. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/-2.1%, 19 times out of 20. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

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