A spring election is all but guaranteed when the House of Commons next sits, as all federal leaders – including the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh – have now committed to voting against confidence in the government. Singh’s own future, however, is far from certain when Canadians head to the polls again.

The NDP took second place in the non-profit Angus Reid Institute’s most recent vote intention survey but sits on a base of tenuous support. As was the case in the early days of ARI, left of centre support is again fluid between the Liberals and New Democrats.

Much of this small surge in vote intention appears to be contingent on Trudeau as prime minister, which will no longer be the case. In a situation where, for example, Chrystia Freeland supplants Trudeau as Liberal leader, it’s back to third place for the NDP.

That is not to say the NDP doesn’t have room to grow. According to these latest data from ARI, one-quarter of Canadians could be considered the NDP’s potential core. This is made up of one-in-five who already say they would support the party in an election (19%) and six per cent who say they would definitely consider the NDP candidate in their riding. An even larger portion (29%) say that they wouldn’t rule it out.

If the New Democrats are to capitalize on the moment and match the heights they enjoyed under Jack Layton as official opposition, the party’s leader must play a key role. His public opinion profile, however, has been diminished during the NDP’s recently ended cooperation with the Liberals through a Supply and Confidence Agreement. Singh’s favourability dropped 11 points (from 44% to 33%) in 2024. This is an 18-point reduction since January 2022, shortly before the agreement was signed.

More problematically, current NDP voters are equally likely to agree (42%) and disagree (41%) that the party would be better off without him. That sentiment is felt even more strongly among those who won’t rule out the party in the future. Among this group that “might consider” the NDP candidate in their riding in a future election, 46 per cent say the NDP would be performing better under a different leader, while 21 per cent disagree.

More Key Findings:

• The NDP performs best in Manitoba and British Columbia, where one-in-three residents are either already supporting the party or would “definitely” consider it. Conversely, just 17 per cent of Quebec residents currently say that is the case.

• A group of approximately nine per cent of Canadians say they would consider supporting the Liberals and the NDP but are not currently supporting either. Views of Singh within this group are divided between favourability (33%), unfavourability (34%) and uncertainty (33%).

• Among those who voted for the NDP in 2021, one-quarter (24%) now view Singh unfavourably. He retains favour with seven-in-10 (70%)

Link to the poll here: www.angusreid.org/