FROM 2016 to 2021, the number of children younger than 15 grew six times slower than the number of persons aged 65 and older, according to Statistics Canada. In 2021, there were 6 million children, representing 16.3% of the total Canadian population.

The number of very young children (under the age of 5) fell 3.6%, from 1,899,000 in 2016 to 1,831,000 in 2021. This decline is due to a decrease in the fertility rate for Canadian women that has been observed since 2016. In 2020, the total fertility rate reached a historic low of 1.4 children per woman. A further decrease in the fertility rate is possible in the near future, as 1 in 5 Canadian women reported that they wanted to delay their plans to have children because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The 2016 Census marked the first time that the number of Canadians aged 65 and older topped the number of children younger than 15. Since then, the gap has widened from 96,000 in 2016 to just over 1 million in 2021.

In 2021, three provinces still had more children younger than age 15 than persons aged 65 and older: Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. This is also observed in the three territories.

Population projections suggest that the gap between the number of persons aged 65 and older and children younger than 15 at the national level will continue widening in the coming years. In 2051, the number of Canadians aged 65 and older could reach almost 12 million, and the number of children under 15 years could total 7.4 million.

DESPITE population aging accelerating over the past decade, Canada has one of the youngest populations among the G7 countries. Only the United States and the United Kingdom have a lower proportion of their population aged 65 and older.

The US population is younger than Canada’s mainly because of its higher fertility. This means that their population of children under 15 years of age is proportionally larger than Canada’s.

The United Kingdom not only had a smaller baby boom than Canada, but it also has a slightly higher fertility rate.

Japan has the highest proportion of seniors, with nearly 3 in 10 persons aged 65 and older compared with less than 2 in 10 for Canada. Japan also has the lowest percentage of children under 15 and persons aged 15 to 64. This is a reflection of their very low fertility, the highest life expectancy in the world, and almost no immigration. Japan’s population has also been declining for many years.

Like many countries in Europe, Japan is ahead of Canada in terms of population aging, and these countries have found different ways to adapt to these demographic shifts. For example, the retirement age is set to increase in Italy and in most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, while countries such as Sweden and Japan are reforming their health care systems to integrate in-home care. Japan, which must also deal with a decreasing population, has prioritized higher productivity, notably through automation and robotics among other things. In the coming years, Canada’s level of productivity is projected to be well below the average for OECD countries.

THE first release of 2021 Census data showed that the COVID-19 pandemic almost halted population growth in Canada in 2020. As well, the pandemic contributed to an estimated, and likely temporary, reduction in life expectancy at birth of 0.41 years in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had many repercussions on the lives of Canadians. It also slowed population growth in all age groups. Although the pandemic caused many deaths among the very old, particularly those living in collective dwellings, it has not had a significant impact on population aging for two reasons.

First, the 12,900 additional deaths due to COVID-19 among the population 65 years and older from March 1, 2020 to May 15, 2021 was significantly lower than the increase of nearly 245,000 people in this population, an increase driven by those who turned 65 in 2020.

Second, immigration fell significantly in 2020 as a result of the border restrictions imposed around the world; just under 185,000 immigrants were admitted in 2020, compared with more than 340,000 in 2019. This decline in the number of immigrants drove the share of young adults in the total population down slightly, since immigrants and non-permanent residents are often young adults in their twenties or thirties when they arrive in Canada.

According to population projections, even if immigration to Canada were to increase in the coming years or decades, even significantly, it would still not curb population aging, which is inevitable.

NATIONAL trends mask large differences in the age structure of populations from one region to another. These differences have been widening, mainly as a result of fertility and migration trends that vary by region. Growing differences between Canada’s regions pose challenges for developing national programs to serve Canadians.

For example, the Prairie provinces and the territories have younger populations, while those in the Atlantic provinces and Quebec are older.

In 2021, for the first time, British Columbia had just over 1 million persons aged 65 and older. This age group represents 20.3% of the province’s population, an all-time high for provinces west of Quebec.

Of the country’s four most populated provinces, Quebec has the highest proportion of people 65 years and older (20.6%, or just over 1 in 5 people).

In addition, from 2016 to 2021, population aging was faster in some provinces or territories, namely in Newfoundland and Labrador, Yukon and New Brunswick. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older rose 4.2 percentage points to 23.6%, or almost 1 in 4 people—the highest share among the provinces and territories.

Of the four most populated provinces, Ontario’s population is aging the slowest. From 2016 to 2021, its proportion of persons aged 65 and older rose by 1.8 percentage points.

Often, faster population aging is the result of lower fertility and immigration, as well as migration losses to other parts of the country.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are the only provinces in Canada where children under 15 still outnumber people 65 years and older. This is mostly due to higher fertility in these three provinces than elsewhere in Canada, except the territories.

Nunavut stands out from all other regions in Canada with a significantly younger population and slower population aging.