A new Pallas Data poll finds that the BC NDP under Premier David Eby continues to lead the province, holding a five-point advantage over the opposition Conservatives as the party searches for a new leader to replace John Rustad.
(To read the full report with tables, click here.)
Among decided and leaning voters, the NDP has 42% (-2% since Pallas’s last poll in December), while the BC Conservatives, led by interim leader Trevor Halford, have 37% (-2%).
The Greens, led by Emily Lowan, are at 13% (+4%), and OneBC, led by Dallas Brodie, sits at 7% (+1%).
“The NDP have a solid lead, but the race is still competitive,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data.
“The Conservatives’ choice of leader will matter enormously for the next election,” said Angolano. “While the NDP will hope to peg back Green support to the levels they got in the last election, the next Conservative leader will need to get back the support that they have lost to OneBC.”
The NDP leads the Conservatives by nine points in Metro Vancouver (42% to 33%) and by more than twenty points on Vancouver Island (49% to 28%). The Conservatives hold a sizeable advantage in the Rest of BC, leading 46% to 39% among decided and leaning voters.
The NDP’s advantage is driven by women, with Eby’s party leading by 18 points (49% to 31%). Among men, the race is tighter, with the Conservatives leading 43% to 35%.
Voters aged 65 and above break for the NDP 50% to 36%, while younger voters aged 18 to 34 lean Conservative 37% to 40%, making that cohort the most competitive age group.
“The Conservatives have done really well among the 18-34 group in the past election, so their next leader has to be able to speak and excite that group to have a chance at winning the next election,” said Angolano.
Conservative Leadership Race: Elliott Most Preferred, But Most Are Undecided
The survey also asked BC Conservative voters which of the six declared leadership candidates they would support if the leadership election were held today.
Caroline Elliott leads the field at 16%, followed by Darrell Jones at 9%, Iain Black at 6%, Peter Milobar at 5%, Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 3%, and Yuri Fulmer at 2%. Five percent said they would vote for another candidate not on the list.
However, the most striking finding is that 54% of BC Conservative voters remain undecided.
Elliott’s support is particularly strong among younger Conservative voters, with 26% among those aged 18 to 34 and 25% among those aged 35 to 49. Jones performs better among older Conservatives, taking 11% among those 50 to 64 and 10% among voters 65 and older.
Geographically, Elliott leads in Metro Vancouver (16%) and the Rest of BC (19%), while Jones performs best on Vancouver Island (11%). Black draws 8% in Metro Vancouver but only 2% in the Rest of BC.
“Leadership races are decided by the ability to sell memberships and get members out to vote,” said Angolano. “This measures name recognition among the candidates, and while Caroline Elliott leads, she will need to translate that recognition into member support.”
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 12–14 among a sample of 988 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region using 2021 Census data. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
