Which poll will you believe? Nanos says Liberals lead, Angus Reid says Conservatives ahead

Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer

THE latest weekly Nanos federal ballot tracking (February 22) has the Liberals at 35.7 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 33.6 per cent, the NDP at 15 percent, the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) at 3.7 per cent, the Greens at 8.4 per cent and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 1.2 per cent.

On the other hand, an Angus Reid Institute Poll (February 21-24) puts the Conservatives six points ahead of the Liberals. The Conservatives are at 38 percent, the Liberals at 31, the NDP at 14, Other Party / Independent at 5 per cent and the BQ at 5 per cent.

According to Nanos tracking, asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 48.2 per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal while 45.8 per cent would consider voting Conservative.  One in three (35.7%) would consider voting NDP, 29.6 per cent would consider voting Green, 10.4 per cent would consider voting for the People’s Party and 23.8 per cent would consider voting for the BQ.

Nanos tracking has Justin Trudeau as the preferred choice as Prime Minister at 35 per cent of Canadians followed by Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer (24.4%), NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (5.8%), Green Party Leader Elizabeth May (7.0%) and PPC Leader Maxime Bernier (2.2%).  Twenty-four per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.

More than half of Canadians (51.0%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 38.8 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader.  One in four (26.5%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 34.3 per cent believe the same about May. One in six (17.5%) believe Bernier has the qualities of a good political leader and 22.7 per cent said BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet has the qualities of a good political leader (Quebec only).

ACCORDING to Angus Reid, as political watchers across the country await with bated breath testimony from former Attorney General and Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould, their latest public opinion poll shows the SNC-Lavalin affair taking a toll on the fortunes of Trudeau and his Liberal government.

While it remains unclear exactly how much – if any – pressure Trudeau and his staff put on Wilson-Raybould not to prosecute the Quebec-based engineering firm for fraud and corruption charges stemming from its business in Libya, most Canadians (66%) say they believe there is a deeper scandal in the Prime Minister’s Office. Moreover, a similar number (63%) say they believe SNC-Lavalin should be fully prosecuted under the criminal code, rather than allowed to negotiate a remediation agreement, as the PMO reportedly would have preferred.

These findings correspond with low marks for Trudeau himself. Fully six-in-10 Canadians (60%) say they have an unfavourable view of the Prime Minister, and a nearly identical 59 per cent say their opinion of him has worsened over the last month or so. While this is driven largely by the negative views of right-of-centre voters, it’s notable that three-in-10 (28%) who would vote for Trudeau’s Liberal Party in an election held tomorrow also say their view of the PM has worsened.

All of this creates a political landscape in which Trudeau’s Liberals would find themselves trailing Scheer’s Conservative Party by seven percentage points (38% to 31%) in the event an election were held tomorrow.

More Key Findings:

  • Trudeau isn’t the only party leader viewed unfavourably by a majority of Canadians. Most also hold unfavourable opinions of Scheer (54% do) and New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh (64%)
  • Political preference informs opinion on the SNC-Lavalin affair, with those who would vote for the Conservatives in an election held tomorrow overwhelmingly taking the view that there is a deeper scandal to uncover (95%), while most Liberal supporters feel it has been overblown (72% do)
  • Trudeau stands out from the other major party leaders because of the number of Canadians whose opinion of him has worsened in recent weeks. Six-in-ten (59%) say this of Trudeau, while roughly half as many say this of Scheer (25%) or Singh (29%)


  1. Little “Nicky” always had the liberals leading,then just before vote is held then his “polls” come in line with other polls. I took one of his polls and found it very leaning to the liberals

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