THE VOICE reported on February 7 that a Pallas poll conducted on February 6 showed that if an election were held at that time, the Liberals led by Mark Carney would defeat the Conservatives.
With Carney as leader, the Liberals would get 39% support of voters (decided and leaning), the Conservatives 38%.
Now a Leger poll released on Tuesday (February 11) shows that with Carney as leader, Liberal support would rise to 37%, while Conservative support would drop to 37%, suggesting Carney could attract voters and improve the party’s electoral chances.
The Leger poll, conducted online from February 7 to 10, shows that the gap between the Conservative and Liberal leads is narrowing as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party is currently leading by 9 points, compared to an 18-point lead over the Liberal Party at the last measure.
If a federal election were held today, 40% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 31% would vote for the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party has seen a significant increase of 6 percentage points since the last measurement, while the Conservatives have experienced a decrease of 3 points.
Among potential successors to Justin Trudeau, Carney still emerges as the clear frontrunner, now garnering 37% support. Chrystia Freeland follows with 12%, while Karina Gould trails with 3%. Carney’s appeal is particularly strong among Liberal voters, with 68% backing his leadership.
With Carney as leader, Liberal support would rise to 37% (+6), while Conservative support would drop to 37%, suggesting Carney could attract voters and improve the party’s electoral chances.
On the other hand, if Freeland led the Liberals, support would decline to 28% (-3), giving the Conservatives a stronger lead at 39%.
Poilievre (22%) and Carney (20%) are the most trusted in managing U.S.-Canada relations, with Carney leading among Liberal voters (44%). Trudeau and Ontario Premier Doug Ford rank lower at 9%. Freeland also ranks lower at 6%, followed by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at 5%.
Overall, Canadians (82%) are concerned that U.S. President Donald Trump could use tariffs or trade sanctions to pressure Canada into a closer union with the U.S. Concern is highest among Liberal (93%) and NDP (92%) voters, while Conservative supporters are less worried (75%). In response to these threats, a majority of Canadians (81%) plan to or have increased purchases of Canadian-made products, while 59% say they will or did stop buying U.S. alcohol, and 56% will or avoid traveling to the U.S.
With 86% of Canadians worried the economy may worsen, many say they already feel the impact of rising costs, particularly for fresh fruits and vegetables (72%) and packaged goods (67%). Concerns over price increases for groceries are higher among Quebecers (76%), whereas concerns over gasoline prices (59%) are highest in British Columbia (78%) and the Prairies (69%). Half of Canadians (54%) also say they have postponed major
household purchases due to economic uncertainty. This proportion is higher among Canadians ages 18 to 34 years old (62%).
Most Canadians (85%) feel proud to be Canadian, with 58% saying that they are very proud and 55% considering Canada one of the best countries to live in. The threats of tariffs and Trump’s comments appear to influence Canadians’ sense of pride, as both measures have seen significant increases since the last survey on that topic in June 2024. At that time, 76% of Canadians said they were proud to be Canadian, and 41% considered it the best country.
The results for this wave of research are based on online research conducted from February 7 to 10 with a representative sample of 1,590 Canadian adults 18 years of age and older from Leger’s LEO panel. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,590 would have a margin of error of +/- 2.46%, 19 times out of 20.
READ ALSO:
Liberals led by Mark Carney would defeat Conservatives: Pallas poll
