THE Liberal leadership race is still in its early days, but it is renewing interest in the party among voters, especially with the prospect of Mark Carney as leader, says Angus Reid Institute.
The former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney appears to have an advantage among prospective voters over his main rival in the contest, former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. That said, both still have to contend with Liberal Party members and make their case to be the next leader, and both still trail the opposition Conservative Party by a double-digit margin.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds vote intention more favourable to the Liberals with Carney as leader than Freeland by about six points:
* With Carney at the helm, 43 per cent say they would vote for the CPC, while 29 per cent would support the Liberals.
* With Freeland the CPC lead grows to 20 points (44% to 24%).
Before his resignation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals had fallen to 16 per cent.
More Key Findings:
- Carney has regional strengths compared to Freeland. He holds an advantage in proportion of vote generated for the Liberals in British Columbia (+8) and Ontario (+7). Neither is competitive in the Prairies, and each garner close to equal vote totals in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
- Looking at six age and gender combinations, Carney generates higher vote levels for the Liberals among five. Only among women ages 35 to 54 does Freeland bring the Liberals more votes (+7).
- Notably, the Conservative Party leads in every region other than Quebec and Atlantic Canada by double-digits, regardless of which Liberal leader respondents are assessing.
Top issues by voters:
The top issues for voters continue to centre around affordability – the rising cost of living (58% choose it as a top issue) and housing (29%). Health care (40%) also remains in the top three. The economy (23%) and climate change (19%) round out the top five issues facing the country according to Canadians.
Analyzing the split samples of Liberal voters under the scenarios where Carney or Freeland win the leadership race paints a picture of slightly divergent priorities. Carney Liberal supporters are more likely to say inflation is a top concern (59%) than Freeland Liberal supporters (49%). Both groups place a higher importance on health care (56% Carney Liberals, 53% Freeland Liberals) than those who say they would vote CPC (27%) if an election were held today. The economy in general is narrowly chosen more often by Carney Liberals while climate change is a slightly higher priority among Freeland Liberals.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from January 24-27, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 1,960 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
Link to the poll, and more key findings, here: