Conservatives ahead of Liberals; Conservative majority seen

THE Conservatives have closed the gap, and are now just ahead of the Liberals by two points, according to a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll amongst 1,029 Canadian voters.

Amongst decided and leaning voters, Liberal support has decreased by three points, from 39% on February 26 to 36% now.

Conservative are up three points, from 35% on February 26 to 38% now.

September 2015 was the last time the Forum Poll recorded a Conservative lead over the Liberals (September 29, 2015: 34%, and 27% respectively).

New Democrat and Green support has remained steady at 15% and 4% respectively (February 26: NDP 15%, Green Party 4%), while the Bloc Quebecois see a one point decrease to 6% (February 26: 7%).

If an election were held today, the Conservatives would win 170 seats, the Liberals 128, the NDP 26, the BQ 13, and 1 for the Green.

In British Columbia the Liberals (35%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (29%), who themselves are statistically tied with the New Democrats (28%).

In the Atlantic region, the Liberals (48%) have seen a decrease in support, losing 11 points (February 26: 59%). The Conservatives (32%) are up two points (February 26: 30%).

In Québec, both the Liberals (40%) and Conservatives (20%) are slightly up since February (February 26: 38%, and 17% respectively). The BQ (22%) is down five points (February 26: 27%).

In Ontario, the Liberals (38%) fall behind the Conservatives (45%) by seven points (February 26: 42%, and 39% respectively). The NDP (12%) is down four points (February 26: 16%).

In the prairies, the Conservatives (48%) are up six points, while the Liberals (19%) are down by 10 (February 26: 42%, and 29% respectively). The NDP (20%) is down by five points (February 26: 25%).

“Canadians are not happy with the Liberal budget. The budget is so unpopular in fact, that we’re seeing the leaderless Conservatives gain an edge in popularity for the first time since 2015,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research, on Saturday.