AT 39 points, the Conservative Party is still in a commanding position; however, their massive 22-point lead from a few months ago is now less than half that at 10.5 points, according to EKOS Politics.
At 28 points, the Liberal Party is now clearly in second place, while the NDP is falling back (17 points).
Another auspicious development for the Liberals is that they are now within the margin of error of the lead in Ontario and have a clear lead in the Atlantic provinces.
The Conservatives remain very strong in Western Canada. Quebec appears somewhat unsettled and, all in all, the voter landscape there favours the Conservatives but much less decisively than a few months ago, says EKOS Politics.
A key factor in this shifting voter landscape is the women’s vote. This mirrors a similar gender divide in the United States which was ultimately not strong enough to prevent a decisive victory by Donald Trump and the Republican Party. The timing of this poll straddles the U.S. election and, while the political situation south of the border may well be influencing Canadian politics, EKOS Politics found no differences between the results collected before the U.S. election and those collected after. Middle-aged women are in the Liberal camp whereas younger women are leaning toward the NDP, despite broader challenges for the party following the recent British Columbia election.
The Conservatives are also doing well with visible minorities and Indigenous voters which mirrors the Republican Party’s progress with voters of colour. The specific factors underpinning this narrower margin are unclear at this time and it is unclear whether this shift is an ephemeral or structural shift or a more structural change. However, we can confirm that these movements are following a clear trajectory and are statistically reliable, says EKOS Politics.
The field dates for this survey are October 21-30, 2024. In total, a random sample of 1,340 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
