Ford PC support collapses, while Liberal voters prefer Tory as their leader: Mainstreet Research

Doug Ford

THE governing Progressive Conservatives have slid to third, Premier Doug Ford’s favourability ratings have now fallen below those of Kathleen Wynne’s at the end of her tenure, while Liberal voters say that John Tory is their most preferred choice to lead the Ontario Liberal Party.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest Ontario survey. The poll surveyed 996 Ontarians between May 21 and 22. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“More and more Ontarians are turning away from Doug Ford as his support is collapsing,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “We have never seen an imcumbent premier reach these depths in popular opinion with barely a year into his mandate.”

Premier Ford has a net favourability rating of -53.5%. By comparison, Wynne’s net favourability rating stood at -35.3% on April 30th, 2018. NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s net rating is +20.3%, interim Liberal leader John Fraser’s net rating is +7.4%, while Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net rating of +11.4%.

The poll also asked respondents who said that they would vote Liberal today who they would prefer as Ontario Liberal leader. Among decided Liberal voters, 65% say they want to see Toronto mayor John Tory, while 5.2% say they would prefer former cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello. Declared candidates Steven Del Duca and Michael Coteau have 3.3% and 5%, respectively. Former education minister Mitzie Hunter, widely expected to jump in the race, has 11.1%.

However, 54% of Liberals voters said that they were undecided about who the next leader should be.

  • Respondents were also presented with different ballot scenarios with Tory, Pupatello, Del Duca, Hunter, and Coteau as potential Ontario Liberal leaders.
  • 39.1% said that they would vote Liberal if Tory were leader;
  • 29.6% said they would vote Liberal if Pupatello were leader;
  • 27.8% would vote Liberal if Del Duca led the Ontario Liberal Party;
  • 28.1% would vote Liberal if Coteau were at the helm of the Ontario Liberals;
  • 28% said they would vote Liberal if Hunter were leading the party.

“Only John Tory is outperforming the current Liberal number, indicating that he is the only potential leadership candidate that can add some value to the Ontario Liberal brand at this moment,” added Maggi.

The poll also surveyed Ontarians who they would vote for if an election were held today. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals with interim leader John Fraser at the helm have 39.9% (+13.9% since April), while the NDP have 24.2% (-2.4%). The PCs have 22.4% (-10%), while the Greens have 12% (+3%).