ABACUS Daily Tracking: LPC 33, CPC 32, NDP 21


  • The race has tightened again with the Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied nationally. The Liberals are ahead by 5 in Ontario and 11 in Quebec.
  • 52% of those who have voted or definitely plan to vote say it’s definitely time for a change of government whereas 22% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office – only a one-point change from yesterday.
  • NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the most favourable image (+18), while Liberal Party Leader Trudeau is -1, Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole is -8, and Green Party Leader Annamie Paul is -23.
  • 29% of those who haven’t voted but have a first preference say they could still change their mind before they vote. 4% of non-voters are entirely undecided.
  • 45% think the Liberals are going to win while 29% think the Conservatives will win. That’s a slight change from yesterday.

With three days to go, the race remains tight nationally but the Liberals remain well-positioned to win the most seats.