Conservative lead grows, Trudeau’s disapproval high: Forum Poll

IN a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1,484 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, almost half (46%) say they would support the Conservatives, while a third (30%) say they would support the Liberals.

One-fifth (18%) say they would support the NDP. Few say they would support the Green Party (4%), Bloc Quebecois (2%), or another party (1%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (50%), 55-64 (48%) or 65+ (48%); males (52%); earning $60,000-$80,000 (54%); the least educated (52%); and living in Alberta (65%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 45-54 (35%) or 65+ (34%); with a college / university (32%) or post-graduate degree (35%); and living in the Atlantic provinces (44%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (31%); females (21%); the least wealthy (25%) or earning $20,000-$40,000 (24%); and living in BC (28%).

 

Conservative Majority

 

Based on these results, the Forum Poll projects the Conservatives would secure a majority government with 234 seats.

The Liberals would serve as official opposition with 72 seats, and the NDP would secure 30 seats. The BQ and the Green party would secure 1 seat each.

 

Trudeau Approval Down, Disapproval Up

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (35%) and disapproval from more than half (56%). One in 10 say they do not know (9%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -21.

Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer sees approval from a third (31%) and disapproval from a third (34%). A third say they do not know (35%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -3.

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh sees approval from one-quarter (27%) and disapproval from a third (35%). Four in 10 (38%) say they do not know. His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -8.

“The Conservatives have strengthened their lead over the governing Liberals going into the summer break,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The Prime Minister is seeing a high level of disapproval right now and that could account for the lack of support for his party.”