NDP nearing majority, with stronghold in B.C.; Mulcair on top – Forum Poll

unnamedIN a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 1,268 Canadian voters, well more than a third will vote NDP if a federal election were held today (36%), while just more than a quarter would vote either Liberal or Conservative (28% each).

This represents a slight increase for the NDP since last week (June 16 – 34%) and relative stability for the other two parties. The Green Party is reduced to very few votes (2%), as is the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or other parties (1%).

If these results are projected up to a 338-seat House of Commons, the NDP would take 149, 21 short of a majority, but up 20 since last week.

The Conservatives would take 115 and the Liberals would be limited to 65 seats.

The Bloquistes would take 3 seats, the Green Party would keep their leader’s seat and one independent would take a seat (André Arthur, should he run as an independent. Should he run as a Conservative the seat count would change accordingly).

* In BC, the NDP dominates (NDP – 54%, Conservatives – 21%, Liberals – 20%).

* In Ontario, the three parties are tightly tied (Conservative – 32%, Liberal – 32%, NDP- 33%).

* In Quebec, the NDP has a clear lead (NDP – 36%, Liberal – 25%, Bloc – 20%, Conservative – 17%).

* In Alberta, while the Conservatives have a solid lead still (41%) the Liberals (27%) and the NDP (28%) are closing in for second place.

* In Atlantic Canada, while the Liberals still lead (41%), the Conservatives are close in second place (32%), followed, distantly, by the NDP (24%).

Of note, close to 3-in-10 past Liberal voters (2011) will vote NDP this time around (29%) and this is a reversal of the pattern we have seen for the past two years, where about 3-in-10 past NDP voters would switch to the Liberals.


Mulcair on top


Stephen Harper has the approval of 3-in-10 voters (30%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative but stable -31.

Tom Mulcair continues to enjoy the approval of one half of voters (50%) and his net is a very positive +25.

Justin Trudeau has the approval of about 4-in10 (38%) and his net is a neutral -3.


Conservative Party is second choice of few


One half of Liberal supporters pick the NDP as their second choice (48%), and a similar proportion of NDP voters say the Liberals are their second choice (43%).

Close to one fifth of Liberals pick the Conservatives second (17%), while about one tenth of New Democrats do (10%).

One quarter of Conservatives pick the Liberals second (25%), and just fewer pick the NDP (19%).

Of note, the Green Party is the second choice of a significant minority of Liberals (16%) and New Democrats (23%).

In total, the NDP have a ceiling of 58% of the vote (first plus second choice), the Liberals have a ceiling of 51%, and the Conservatives, just 37%.


NDP, Conservatives tied in expectation of victory


Roughly equal proportions anticipate a Conservative (29%) or an NDP (27%) victory. Just fewer expect a Liberal victory (25%). Conservatives are more certain of their party’s victory (80%) than are Liberals (64%) or New Democrats (61%).

“The movement in the NDP’s favour is slow, but it’s gathering momentum. They’re firmly in first in Quebec and BC and at parity in Ontario, which are three of the four biggest provinces. There is very little downside to the NDP voter profile, and Mulcair is more popular than his party, while Trudeau and Harper trade at about their parties’ favourability. Even in the expectation of victory, which tends to be a lagging measure, we see the NDP have caught up to the Conservatives,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.