BC Liberals leading in Nanaimo by-election: Mainstreet Research

Turnout will be important as motivation of both Liberals and NDP is very high 
THE BC Liberals lead in the Nanaimo by-election, the result of which could lead to an election in British Columbia.

“No matter what angle we look at it, the BC Liberals are ahead of the BC NDP in Nanaimo with the vote to be held on Wednesday,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “No matter if we ask for party names or candidate names, the BC Liberals are leading.”

To read the full report with numbers, please click here.

Among decided and leaning voters, the BC Liberals have 44.7% support while the NDP have 32.2%. The Greens have 13.7% while the BC Conservatives have 7%.
When asking respondents which candidate they would vote for, Tony Harris of the Liberals has 43.5% while the NDP’s Sheila Malcolmson has 35%. Michele Ney of the Green Party has 12.2%, while Justin Greenwood of the BC Conservatives has 2.5%.
753 voters in Nanaimo were surveyed between January 23 and 24. The margin of error on this survey is +/- 3.54% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
If the Liberals win this election, the balance of power in the British Columbia will shift and favour the Liberals, and an early election could be called.
But Maggi notes that this is a high stakes by-election where the motivation of both the Liberals and the NDP is very high, and turnout will be important.
“Turnout is usually a function of voter motivation and party organization and that should be reflected in the final vote,” said Maggi. “The BC NDP are literally fighting for the government’s life in Nanaimo so it would not be a surprise if the final numbers will be tighter than our findings.”