IN a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 1,018 Canadian voters, almost 4-in-10 will vote Liberal if the election were held today (39%) compared to just less than a third who will vote Conservative (32%). Fewer than a fifth will vote for the New Democrats (17%).
These findings represent a contrast to last month, when the two leading parties were tied (Liberals – 34%, Conservatives – 35%) and the New Democrats had a full fifth of the vote (January 28 – 20%).
If these results are projected up to seats in the new 338 seat Parliament, the Liberals would capture a convincing 24 seat majority of 194 seats, compared to just 112 for the Conservatives and just 30 for the NDP. The Greens and the Bloc Quebecois would each take one seat.
“It is clear Mr. Harper has had a very bad week, starting with the loss of John Baird, a genuinely popular minister in a government not blessed with many popular ministers. In addition, while Eve Adams’ defection, which happened in the middle of our field period, can be seen as much a boon to the Conservatives as the Liberals, she is yet another partisan leaving the government with an election imminent,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.