NDP and BC Liberals in a dead heat; British Columbians don’t like any party leader

John Horgan

THE governing NDP and the opposition BC Liberals are statistically tied regarding who has the most support among British Columbians.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of 10 provincial polls. The poll surveyed 933 British Columbians between July 15 and 17 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.21% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“Only .7% separate the Horgan NDP and the Wilkinson BC Liberals among decided and leaning voters”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This might be the narrowest gap between two parties that we have ever reported.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson lead with 33.9%, but the governing NDP led by John Horgan follow closely with 33.2% of support. The BC Green Party with Andrew Weaver at the helm have 16%”.

Andrew Wilkinson

“Besides how close the two parties are, what is interesting about these numbers is that the BC Liberals take the lead over the NDP thanks to those who are currently undecided but are leaning towards voting Liberal if an election were held today,” said Maggi. “This means that NDP vote is firmer than the Liberals, but the Liberals have a wider base to build from.”
The Liberals have a slight lead in Greater Vancouver and hold a substantial lead in the interior of BC over the NDP. However, the NDP hold a 13 point lead over the Liberals on Vancouver Island.

Andrew Weaver

The poll also asked favourability ratings for four party leaders and found that British Columbians have an overall negative opinion of all four party leaders.
“It is unusual that Horgan, Wilkinson, and Weaver have net negative favourability ratings, but it is even more unusual that over 30% of British Columbians either are not sure or are not familiar with all of these leaders, especially with a sitting premier.”
“British Columbians are either not paying attention to provincial politics these days or they are not being inspired to support any of these parties at this stage.”
Wilkinson enjoys the best rating with -4.2% net favourability rating, followed by Weaver with -6.7%, and then Horgan with -9.5%.
The poll also found that 43.2% do not think that there will be a provincial election within the next twelve months, while 34.1% think that British Columbians will go to the polls by then. Nearly 23% said that they were not sure.